Economy News

The Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Zacch Adedeji, has emphasized that Nigeria must urgently shift to selecting public infrastructure projects—such as roads, ports, and power investments—based strictly on their potential economic returns if the country intends to overcome its persistent revenue constraints. Adedeji made this assertion on Friday while delivering a keynote lecture at the University of Ilesa’s Founders’ Day celebration, where he outlined strategic measures needed to reposition Nigeria’s revenue system for long-term fiscal sustainability.

According to him, Nigeria’s existing project selection culture, which often prioritizes political considerations over economic impact, is no longer sustainable. With dwindling government revenues and rising obligations, he argued that public infrastructure projects must now pass a more rigorous economic justification process, ensuring they can attract private-sector participation, expand productive capacity, stimulate trade, and ultimately generate measurable returns to the treasury.

Four Strategic Actions to Reverse Revenue Decline

Adedeji explained that adopting an economic-returns-driven approach to project selection is only one of four key policy steps that Nigeria must embrace if it hopes to reverse its downward revenue trajectory. The first and most critical measure, he said, is a deliberate and aggressive Domestic Revenue Mobilization (DRM) effort. This includes both broadening the tax net and deepening the government’s ability to collect taxes fairly, efficiently, and sustainably.

While Nigeria’s tax system has historically leaned heavily on a relatively small number of large formal-sector businesses, Adedeji stressed that such a concentration is inadequate and unfair. He noted that enormous revenue opportunities remain untapped in the informal sector, digital economy, and among high-net-worth individuals—groups that continue to operate outside the tax net despite their growing economic footprint.

Leveraging Technology to Close Compliance Gaps

The FIRS Chairman highlighted the progress already being made through technology-driven tax administration. Platforms such as TaxPro Max, e-TCC, and new tax intelligence systems have significantly improved compliance monitoring, taxpayer verification, and digital filing. These tools, he said, are closing long-standing loopholes and ensuring that tax obligations are tracked with greater precision and transparency.

By modernizing tax administration, the FIRS intends to make compliance simpler for honest taxpayers while increasing pressure on individuals and businesses who have historically evaded their obligations.

Strengthening Fiscal Discipline and Budget Credibility

Another major focus of Adedeji’s lecture was the need for Nigeria to improve its budget credibility. He cautioned that budgeting must be anchored in realism—meaning that government spending plans must be backed by verifiable revenue expectations, rather than optimistic projections that quickly collapse during implementation.

He also called for enhanced adherence to fiscal rules such as debt ceilings, savings benchmarks, and medium-term expenditure frameworks. Transparent procurement processes, he added, are essential for eliminating waste and strengthening public accountability.

Infrastructure and Diversification Must Be Data-Driven

Adedeji reiterated that infrastructure development remains central to Nigeria’s economic transformation, but he emphasized that such investments must now be strategic and data-driven. Roads, ports, energy facilities, and other capital projects should be selected for their ability to unlock economic opportunities, reduce logistics costs, attract private-sector financing, and improve Nigeria’s competitiveness.

“Infrastructure development should be strategic, data-informed, and private-sector aligned,” he stated, adding that true economic diversification requires “capital, coordination, and courage.”

Importance of Institutional Strengthening

The FIRS Chairman also advocated for greater institutional reforms, including improved inter-agency coordination and enhanced autonomy for key economic institutions such as the FIRS, Nigeria Customs Service, and the Budget Office. Stronger institutions, he argued, are essential for enforcing compliance, enhancing efficiency, and driving consistent fiscal reforms across government.

Revenue Performance Highlights Structural Inequality

Adedeji’s remarks come at a time when Nigeria’s internally generated revenue (IGR) landscape reveals widening disparities between high-performing and low-performing states. According to Nairametrics analysis of 2024 IGR data, the 36 states and the FCT collectively generated N3.63 trillion in 2024—an impressive increase from N2.43 trillion recorded in 2023, representing 49.69% growth.

However, despite this improvement, the bottom 10 states accounted for only 5.23% of total IGR, highlighting deep structural weaknesses and overreliance on federal allocations among many subnational governments. Lagos, Rivers, and the FCT continue to dominate revenue generation, while several states struggle to build resilient domestic revenue systems.

A Call to Action

In his concluding remarks, Adedeji stressed that Nigeria’s path to sustainable development rests on evidence-based planning, disciplined budgeting, improved tax administration, and strategic infrastructure investment. By selecting projects based on their economic impact and further strengthening institutions, Nigeria can unlock new sources of growth and build a more stable, resilient revenue foundation for the future.

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, has welcomed the recent decision by S&P Global Ratings to revise Nigeria’s economic outlook from Stable to Positive, describing it as a strong and encouraging validation of the reforms currently being implemented by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

In a statement released on Saturday, Edun noted that S&P’s upgrade—while maintaining Nigeria’s long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings at B-/B—demonstrates growing international confidence in the direction of Nigeria’s fiscal, monetary, and structural reforms. According to him, the acknowledgment reinforces the government’s resolve to continue pursuing policies designed to restore macroeconomic stability and lay the foundation for long-term, inclusive growth.

“I am delighted to receive the news that S&P Global Ratings has revised Nigeria’s outlook to Positive from Stable while affirming our ‘B-/B’ rating,” Edun said. “This development is yet another clear signal that the difficult but necessary reforms we are undertaking are gaining traction and earning strong recognition from respected global institutions.”

All Major Rating Agencies Now Align

Edun highlighted that S&P’s revised outlook follows earlier upgrades and positive signals from Moody’s and Fitch Ratings earlier in the year. With all three major global credit rating agencies now aligned in their assessment of Nigeria’s reform progress, he said this convergence reflects a strengthening level of confidence in the country’s economic direction.

“This alignment reflects tremendous confidence in the trajectory of our fiscal, monetary, and structural reforms, and in the renewed strength and stability of our economy,” he explained.

Reform Efforts Already Showing Results

The Minister noted that S&P’s decision was driven by Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic indicators—especially stronger growth prospects, rising external buffers, and clearer, more credible monetary policy outcomes. These improvements, he said, indicate that the government’s policy choices are beginning to yield measurable benefits.

“These positive signals reinforce our commitment to staying the course,” Edun stated. “We recognise that more work lies ahead, but we are confident that the foundations being built today will support sustainable and inclusive growth for years to come.”

He praised President Tinubu for what he termed “unwavering leadership and political courage” in driving reforms that previous administrations had avoided. Edun also acknowledged the resilience of Nigerians who are navigating the ongoing economic transition, assuring them that the reforms are designed to create a stronger, more dynamic economy.

“We will continue to implement well-coordinated policies that restore macroeconomic stability, attract investment, and create opportunities for our citizens. The confidence shown by global ratings agencies strengthens our resolve to deliver a prosperous Nigerian economy,” he added.

What S&P Noted in Its Report

In its statement on Friday, S&P Global Ratings revised Nigeria’s outlook to Positive, citing ongoing reform efforts and improving macroeconomic performance. The rating agency also reaffirmed Nigeria’s national scale ratings at ngBBB+/ngA-2.

According to S&P, the positive outlook reflects improving fiscal, monetary, external, and economic outcomes—though the agency also pointed out persistent challenges such as low GDP per capita, high debt-servicing costs, and structural data limitations.

The upgrade follows several major reforms implemented since mid-2023, including:

• Exchange-rate liberalisation

• Removal of the fuel subsidy

• Aggressive revenue-mobilisation measures

• Rising crude oil production

• Stabilisation efforts in the oil and gas sector

• Commissioning of the Dangote Refinery, poised to reshape Nigeria’s energy supply

S&P stated that these coordinated policy moves are placing Nigeria on a more resilient economic path, adding: “We think authorities are taking steps to improve the economy’s growth prospects and macroeconomic resilience.”

What You Should Know

S&P has also raised its average growth projection for Nigeria to 3.7% between 2025 and 2028, up from its previous estimate of 3.2%, supported by increased oil production and stronger private sector confidence.

Other key projections include:

• Inflation is expected to gradually ease to 13% by 2028.

• Nigeria’s external position has improved, with gross foreign reserves estimated at just under $44 billion as of October 2025.

• Removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list and a more stable exchange-rate environment have boosted both diaspora remittances and foreign portfolio inflows.

Overall, the latest S&P rating marks another significant milestone in Nigeria’s reform journey and signals growing international recognition of the country’s economic recovery efforts under the Tinubu administration.

The Nigerian Naira wrapped up the week on a subdued trajectory in the official foreign exchange market, closing at N1,444 per US dollar on Friday. This performance, captured in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) daily FX data, underscores the continued strain on the local currency despite incremental improvements in the nation’s external reserves.

Throughout the week, the Naira displayed a pattern of mild volatility, mirroring the uneven supply conditions and lingering demand pressures that have characterized Nigeria’s foreign exchange environment for several months. These movements highlight ongoing market fragility even as macro indicators such as reserves show signs of strengthening.

Daily Performance and Midweek Weakness

The currency opened the week at N1,437.50/$1 on Monday, setting a relatively firm tone. However, this stability quickly gave way as demand-side pressure intensified. By Tuesday, the Naira slid to N1,440.89/$1, followed by a steeper decline on Wednesday when the currency touched N1,444.85/$1, its weakest level of the week.

Thursday brought a modest reprieve, with the Naira recovering slightly to N1,441/$1, but the momentum proved short-lived. The currency weakened once again on Friday, closing at N1,444/$1, effectively ending the week near its Wednesday low.

Compared to the previous week’s closing rate of N1,438.50/$1, the Naira recorded a mild but noticeable week-on-week depreciation, reflecting the persistent structural challenges of FX supply shortages, speculative positioning, and inconsistent inflows.

Volatility Heightens Despite Rising Foreign Reserves

One of the more notable dynamics this week is the divergence between FX rate movements and the steady rise in Nigeria’s external reserves. According to CBN data, foreign reserves increased to $43.5 billion, up from $43.32 billion the week before. Analysts attribute this improvement to enhanced crude oil receipts, better non-oil inflows, and stricter FX management strategies implemented by the apex bank.

Ordinarily, an uptick in reserves signals stronger capacity for market intervention and typically boosts investor confidence. However, the Naira’s continued weakness suggests that demand pressures currently outweigh the cushioning effect of higher reserves. Market analysts point out that without a meaningful boost in autonomous FX supply—particularly from exports and foreign investments—reserves alone may not be sufficient to stabilize the currency.

Broader Market Dynamics and Black Market Pressure

The Naira also faced downward pressure in the parallel (black) market, where it traded between N1,455/$1 and N1,463/$1 during the week. The widening gap between the official and parallel market rates highlights ongoing liquidity constraints and persistent retail-level demand for dollars.

Currency traders in the informal market report that access to FX remains extremely tight. Many Bureau De Change (BDC) operators have warned that they are “on the brink of shutting down” due to the prolonged suspension of dollar sales to BDCs by the CBN. Without allocations from the official window, operators rely heavily on sparse street-level supply, driving up rates and limiting their ability to remain profitable.

Outlook: Stability Still Hinges on Supply-Side Reforms

Analysts note that the CBN’s managed float framework, supported by improving reserve levels, has prevented more volatile swings compared to earlier months when the Naira saw rapid intraday fluctuations. However, the slight depreciation observed this week points to a cautious overall market outlook, especially as global oil prices soften and economic headwinds persist.

For the Naira to find firmer footing in the coming weeks, stakeholders emphasize the need for stronger export performance, more consistent FX inflows, improved investor confidence, and steady monetary policy execution.

Until these underlying issues are addressed, the Naira is likely to continue navigating a challenging FX landscape marked by intermittent gains, persistent pressures, and sensitivity to global market shifts.

Vice President Kashim Shettima has said that Nigeria is on the threshold of a new era in governance and digital innovation, with the National Digital Economy and e-Governance Bill set to serve as the catalyst for a far-reaching GovTech revolution.

Speaking at the opening ceremony of the Digital Nigeria International Conference and Exhibition 2025 in Abuja, Shettima described the forthcoming law as a landmark reform that will institutionalize smarter governance, promote transparency, and ensure inclusive digital service delivery nationwide.

“Just as the cashless policy unlocked the fintech revolution, this new Bill will unlock the GovTech revolution — ushering in an era of smarter governance, greater transparency, and inclusive service delivery,” the Vice President said.

The National Digital Economy and e-Governance Bill, currently in its final stages of enactment, is designed to modernize how the government interacts with citizens and businesses. The legislation seeks to build a framework for electronic governance, data protection, cybersecurity, and seamless access to public services.

Stabilizing Nigeria’s Economy

Shettima also lauded President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic leadership, stating that the administration has ended “the regimes of volatility and unpredictability” that previously defined Nigeria’s economy.

He noted that the country’s economic stabilization efforts are beginning to yield global recognition, with international credit rating agencies such as Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service recently upgrading Nigeria’s outlook to “stable.”

According to Shettima, these upgrades confirm investor confidence in the government’s reform agenda. “The phase before us now,” he said, “is to ensure that these macroeconomic gains trickle down to the people — from the kiosks of neighborhood traders to the boardrooms of multinational corporations.”

Three Pillars of Digital Transformation

The Vice President outlined the administration’s digital transformation strategy as resting on three key pillars — People, Infrastructure, and Policy — all aimed at positioning Nigeria as Africa’s most competitive digital economy.

Under the People pillar, Shettima said the government is investing heavily in digital education and capacity building through initiatives like Digital Literacy for All (DL4ALL) and the 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) programme. These initiatives are designed to build a generation of digitally skilled Nigerians capable of driving innovation and participating actively in the global knowledge economy.

On Infrastructure, Shettima revealed that the government is rolling out a national broadband “superhighway” to connect every state and ensure equitable digital access. Through flagship projects such as Bridge and Project 774, the aim is to provide high-speed internet connectivity to urban centers and rural communities alike.

“With this infrastructure, startups in Gusau or Makurdi will compete effectively with those in Lagos or Abuja,” he said.

The Policy pillar focuses on creating a stable, innovation-friendly environment. Shettima noted that Nigeria’s success with the cashless economy has already placed the country among the world’s most dynamic fintech hubs. The next frontier, he said, is leveraging automation, artificial intelligence (AI), and data analytics to make government operations more efficient and responsive.

A Digital Future for Public Service

Shettima described the new Digital Economy Bill as the cornerstone of Nigeria’s transition toward a modern, technology-driven public sector. Once enacted, the Bill will streamline government processes, strengthen accountability, and make public institutions more citizen-focused.

“We can no longer apply 20th-century solutions to 21st-century problems,” he emphasized. “Our goal is a digital ecosystem that functions as seamlessly in Lagos as it does in Kano, Port Harcourt, or Gusau — one that guarantees inclusion, competitiveness, and opportunity for all.”

He urged both public and private stakeholders to support Nigeria’s evolution from a digitally reactive nation to a digitally proactive society — one that fosters innovation, inclusion, and sustainable growth.

Legislative Backing and Broader Vision

The House of Representatives has already expressed strong commitment to the Bill, describing it as a cornerstone of Nigeria’s modernization efforts. The legislation aims to provide a comprehensive legal framework for the digital economy, covering areas such as e-transactions, cybersecurity, data governance, and national digital infrastructure.

Once enacted, the Bill is expected to transform how the government operates, how citizens access services, and how Nigeria positions itself in the emerging global digital order — effectively marking the beginning of a GovTech revolution that could redefine governance and service delivery in Africa’s largest economy.

Nigeria’s crude oil sector recorded a steep decline in profitability in 2024, as the country’s gross profit from crude oil and gas sales fell sharply by N824.66 billion, even though total oil receipts and production increased during the year.

According to the Budget Implementation Report for Q4 2024, published by the Budget Office of the Federation, gross profit from oil and gas operations dropped to N1.08 trillion in 2024, compared to N1.90 trillion in 2023 — representing a 43.32% year-on-year decline.

This performance not only highlights the erosion of profitability across Nigeria’s oil value chain but also underscores persistent inefficiencies despite key policy reforms, including the removal of the petrol subsidy and strengthened upstream monitoring systems. The gross profit also fell short of the government’s full-year target of N1.46 trillion by N385.39 billion (26.32%), signaling weaker-than-expected returns from the sector.

Profitability Shrinks Despite Higher Revenue Collection

While gross profit declined, Nigeria’s overall oil and gas receipts increased substantially. Total oil and gas revenue before deductions rose to N15.07 trillion in 2024, up from N8.36 trillion in 2023 — a sharp 80.33% increase.

However, the composition of this revenue reveals a worrying imbalance: gross profit accounted for only 7.2% of total oil and gas income in 2024, compared to 22.8% in the previous year. This means that while the federal government is mobilizing more naira-based revenues, a much smaller proportion of those earnings is translating into pure profit.

Quarterly data reinforce this margin pressure. Gross profit came in at N365.22 billion in Q1, plunged to N161.49 billion in Q2, and then rebounded modestly to N216.58 billion and N335.69 billion in Q3 and Q4, respectively. Still, none of these quarterly results met the budget benchmark of N366.09 billion, and the deep Q2 slump left a hole that subsequent quarters could not fully close.

Oil Taxes, Royalties, and FX Gains Rise Sharply

Underneath the declining profit figures, the broader oil and gas revenue landscape was notably strong. The fiscal system captured more naira revenues from the sector, largely due to currency effects and improved enforcement.

Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) and gas income surged by 111.56%, rising from N2.84 trillion in 2023 to N6.00 trillion in 2024. Similarly, royalty collections jumped by 179.74%, reaching N6.99 trillion compared to N2.50 trillion the previous year. The increase reflects better metering, improved compliance, and stronger oversight from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

Perhaps the most dramatic growth came from exchange gains, which climbed to N4.24 trillion from N791.88 billion, representing a massive 435.93% increase. The naira’s sharp depreciation following foreign exchange reforms significantly inflated the naira value of dollar-denominated oil exports.

Other ancillary revenues also rose strongly. Gas flaring penalties reached N391.26 billion, up from N140.54 billion, while incidental oil revenues — including royalty recovery and marginal field payments — more than doubled to N347.75 billion. These gains highlight the fiscal impact of regulatory tightening and improved revenue tracking.

Rising Costs and JV Structures Erode Profits

Despite higher tax and royalty inflows, the underlying profitability of Nigeria’s oil operations deteriorated. The data suggest that escalating operating costs, legacy joint-venture (JV) obligations, and the structure of production-sharing contracts (PSCs) continue to limit the federal government’s share of oil profits.

Even though deductions for JV cash calls and federally funded upstream projects fell significantly — from N2.45 trillion in 2023 to N156.70 billion in 2024 — the gross profit margin remained thin. The report shows that items such as “Other Federally Funded Upstream Projects,” which cost N1.92 trillion in 2023, dropped to zero in 2024, while JV cash call deductions also disappeared from the books.

Net Oil Revenue Jumps, but Gains May Be Superficial

Thanks to lower deductions and favorable FX conversions, net oil revenue to the federation surged to N12.95 trillion in 2024, up from N4.82 trillion in 2023 — a rise of 168.83%. Similarly, total oil and gas revenue after the 13% derivation to oil-producing states increased by 80.35%, reaching N13.11 trillion compared to N7.27 trillion in the prior year.

However, analysts warn that these headline gains are primarily accounting-based, driven by currency revaluation effects rather than improved efficiency or productivity in the upstream sector. The gap between soaring tax receipts and collapsing profit margins highlights a structural weakness in Nigeria’s petroleum economics — where rising costs, exchange rate distortions, and governance inefficiencies continue to erode real earnings.

As 2025 unfolds, the challenge for policymakers will be translating high nominal oil revenues into sustainable fiscal gains by improving cost efficiency, renegotiating JV frameworks, and accelerating reforms to reduce leakages across the petroleum value chain.

Nigeria’s crude oil sector recorded a steep decline in profitability in 2024, as the country’s gross profit from crude oil and gas sales fell sharply by N824.66 billion, even though total oil receipts and production increased during the year.

According to the Budget Implementation Report for Q4 2024, published by the Budget Office of the Federation, gross profit from oil and gas operations dropped to N1.08 trillion in 2024, compared to N1.90 trillion in 2023 — representing a 43.32% year-on-year decline.

This performance not only highlights the erosion of profitability across Nigeria’s oil value chain but also underscores persistent inefficiencies despite key policy reforms, including the removal of the petrol subsidy and strengthened upstream monitoring systems. The gross profit also fell short of the government’s full-year target of N1.46 trillion by N385.39 billion (26.32%), signaling weaker-than-expected returns from the sector.

Profitability Shrinks Despite Higher Revenue Collection

While gross profit declined, Nigeria’s overall oil and gas receipts increased substantially. Total oil and gas revenue before deductions rose to N15.07 trillion in 2024, up from N8.36 trillion in 2023 — a sharp 80.33% increase.

However, the composition of this revenue reveals a worrying imbalance: gross profit accounted for only 7.2% of total oil and gas income in 2024, compared to 22.8% in the previous year. This means that while the federal government is mobilizing more naira-based revenues, a much smaller proportion of those earnings is translating into pure profit.

Quarterly data reinforce this margin pressure. Gross profit came in at N365.22 billion in Q1, plunged to N161.49 billion in Q2, and then rebounded modestly to N216.58 billion and N335.69 billion in Q3 and Q4, respectively. Still, none of these quarterly results met the budget benchmark of N366.09 billion, and the deep Q2 slump left a hole that subsequent quarters could not fully close.

Oil Taxes, Royalties, and FX Gains Rise Sharply

Underneath the declining profit figures, the broader oil and gas revenue landscape was notably strong. The fiscal system captured more naira revenues from the sector, largely due to currency effects and improved enforcement.

Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) and gas income surged by 111.56%, rising from N2.84 trillion in 2023 to N6.00 trillion in 2024. Similarly, royalty collections jumped by 179.74%, reaching N6.99 trillion compared to N2.50 trillion the previous year. The increase reflects better metering, improved compliance, and stronger oversight from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

Perhaps the most dramatic growth came from exchange gains, which climbed to N4.24 trillion from N791.88 billion, representing a massive 435.93% increase. The naira’s sharp depreciation following foreign exchange reforms significantly inflated the naira value of dollar-denominated oil exports.

Other ancillary revenues also rose strongly. Gas flaring penalties reached N391.26 billion, up from N140.54 billion, while incidental oil revenues — including royalty recovery and marginal field payments — more than doubled to N347.75 billion. These gains highlight the fiscal impact of regulatory tightening and improved revenue tracking.

Rising Costs and JV Structures Erode Profits

Despite higher tax and royalty inflows, the underlying profitability of Nigeria’s oil operations deteriorated. The data suggest that escalating operating costs, legacy joint-venture (JV) obligations, and the structure of production-sharing contracts (PSCs) continue to limit the federal government’s share of oil profits.

Even though deductions for JV cash calls and federally funded upstream projects fell significantly — from N2.45 trillion in 2023 to N156.70 billion in 2024 — the gross profit margin remained thin. The report shows that items such as “Other Federally Funded Upstream Projects,” which cost N1.92 trillion in 2023, dropped to zero in 2024, while JV cash call deductions also disappeared from the books.

Net Oil Revenue Jumps, but Gains May Be Superficial

Thanks to lower deductions and favorable FX conversions, net oil revenue to the federation surged to N12.95 trillion in 2024, up from N4.82 trillion in 2023 — a rise of 168.83%. Similarly, total oil and gas revenue after the 13% derivation to oil-producing states increased by 80.35%, reaching N13.11 trillion compared to N7.27 trillion in the prior year.

However, analysts warn that these headline gains are primarily accounting-based, driven by currency revaluation effects rather than improved efficiency or productivity in the upstream sector. The gap between soaring tax receipts and collapsing profit margins highlights a structural weakness in Nigeria’s petroleum economics — where rising costs, exchange rate distortions, and governance inefficiencies continue to erode real earnings.

As 2025 unfolds, the challenge for policymakers will be translating high nominal oil revenues into sustainable fiscal gains by improving cost efficiency, renegotiating JV frameworks, and accelerating reforms to reduce leakages across the petroleum value chain.

Prominent legal scholar and former President of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), Dr. Olisa Agbakoba, SAN, has called for urgent and comprehensive reforms in Nigeria’s land titling system, arguing that it represents the single most transformative policy that could unlock over N1.5 quadrillion in dormant capital and reposition the nation’s economy for sustainable growth.

Speaking in a policy paper titled “Devolution is the Solution: Foundational Reform Agenda for Nigeria’s Transformation,” Agbakoba said that Nigeria’s vast wealth lies not in oil or foreign reserves but in the untapped potential of land and real estate assets currently trapped under informal ownership.

He emphasized that the failure to properly document and legally recognize land ownership has left billions of dollars in “dead capital” — assets that cannot be leveraged, traded, or integrated into the financial system.

“Over 90 percent of land and real estate in Nigeria have tainted, defective, or no titles at all,” Agbakoba said, citing findings from studies conducted by the World Bank, PwC, and his firm, Olisa Agbakoba Legal (OAL). “This creates ‘dead capital’—assets that cannot be traded, serve as collateral, or be indexed to the financial system.”

According to him, this situation mirrors the thesis of Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto, who argued in The Mystery of Capital that converting dead capital into productive assets through formal property rights is one of the most powerful tools for economic transformation in developing countries.

Formal Land Titling as an Economic Game-Changer

Agbakoba stressed that land titling — the process of formally recognizing and recording private property rights — could radically expand access to credit and investment in Nigeria. With formal ownership documents, property holders can use their land or buildings as collateral for loans, unlocking liquidity and empowering individuals and businesses alike.

“Once property owners have legal titles, banks will be more willing to lend because the assets represent secure collateral backed by enforceable rights,” he explained. “This is how nations build credit-based economies that drive wealth creation and industrialization.”

Commendation for Ongoing Federal Reforms

The senior advocate praised the Federal Government’s National Land Registration, Documentation and Titling Programme, which aims to digitize land records and create a transparent national property registry. However, he urged the administration of President Bola Tinubu to accelerate and scale up the project, ensuring full collaboration between federal and state land agencies.

According to Agbakoba, integrating land values into the national financial system through digital mapping, legal harmonization, and unified documentation would lay the groundwork for massive capital mobilization. “This is not just an administrative reform,” he added. “It is a structural economic revolution.”

From a Cash Economy to a Credit Economy

Agbakoba argued that Nigeria must transition from its prevailing cash-based economy to a credit-driven system if it hopes to achieve inclusive and sustained growth. He maintained that a credit economy allows citizens to leverage assets and expand purchasing power beyond immediate cash availability.

“Nigeria operates a cash economy, which limits the economy’s productive potential because people can only buy what they can afford,” he said. “A functional credit system allows individuals to buy, build, and invest in ways that multiply economic activity.”

To illustrate the potential impact, Agbakoba projected that if 200 million Nigerians each accessed N300,000 in credit, the country would inject N60 trillion into circulation — stimulating domestic demand, supporting small businesses, and easing the country’s foreign exchange pressures.

“When citizens can access affordable credit in naira to own homes, start enterprises, or expand production, it strengthens the naira’s real value,” he explained. “It becomes a currency backed not just by policy, but by productivity and confidence.”

Government Commitment to Land Reform

In August, the Minister of Housing and Urban Development, Arc. Ahmed Dangiwa, reaffirmed the Federal Government’s commitment to improving land titling, documentation, and registration across the country. He announced a plan to raise formal land documentation coverage to 50 percent within the next decade, under a national initiative aimed at unlocking the full economic potential of land assets.

Agbakoba welcomed this commitment but emphasized that political will and institutional coordination would determine the reform’s success. “With the right legal framework, Nigeria can turn its vast land resources into bankable wealth,” he concluded. “This is the surest path to financial inclusion, poverty reduction, and genuine national prosperity.”

The Lagos State Government has made a notable comeback to Nigeria’s domestic debt market with plans to raise up to ₦200 billion through a book-building process under its ₦1 trillion Debt and Hybrid Instruments Issuance Programme. The fresh issuance, which spans a 10-year tenor, is intended to fund critical infrastructure projects and reinforce Lagos’s status as West Africa’s financial hub.

According to the offer documents distributed by the lead issuing house, Chapel Hill Denham Advisory Services Limited, the bonds are being offered at an indicative yield range of 16.15% to 16.25%. The subscription window opened on Thursday, November 6, 2025, and will close on Thursday, November 13, 2025, during which institutional and high-net-worth investors are expected to submit bids indicating the amounts they wish to purchase and their preferred yields.

The book-building process, a standard mechanism in capital market operations, allows the issuing house to determine the final price and yield of the bond based on real-time investor demand. Once the bidding period closes, the bookrunner—acting on behalf of the State—will finalize the offer price that reflects market sentiment and appetite.

Financing Lagos’s Development Agenda

Proceeds from this ₦200 billion bond are earmarked for priority physical and social infrastructure projects across Lagos State. These include major transportation upgrades, affordable housing schemes, healthcare modernization, education infrastructure, and environmental sustainability initiatives—all central pillars of Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu’s THEMES+ development agenda.

As Nigeria’s economic powerhouse, Lagos contributes roughly 20% of the country’s GDP and remains one of Africa’s most dynamic subnational economies. Its diversified revenue base and solid fiscal discipline have consistently positioned it as a model for state-level financial management and economic innovation.

Investor Confidence Driven by Fiscal Strength

Analysts note that Lagos State’s ability to attract investor interest in challenging macroeconomic conditions is underpinned by its strong fiscal profile. The State’s internally generated revenue (IGR) surged by over 100% to nearly ₦2 trillion in 2024, signaling financial resilience and a robust capacity to service debt obligations.

Credit rating agencies have echoed this confidence: Lagos maintains a rating of Aa- from Agusto & Co. and AA- from GCR Ratings. Both agencies cite the State’s large and stable revenue base, diversified economy, prudent financial management, and sustained access to liquidity as key factors supporting the ratings.

“Lagos has maintained a consistent record of fiscal responsibility and remains one of the few subnationals with a reliable track record of bond repayments,” noted an investment advisory firm in Lagos. “This ₦200 billion issuance will likely attract strong institutional participation given the State’s credibility and its role as a benchmark issuer in Nigeria’s subnational bond market.”

Proven Track Record of Debt Market Engagement

Since its groundbreaking ₦15 billion floating-rate bond issuance in 2002, Lagos has set the pace for subnational borrowing in Nigeria. The State has returned to the market multiple times, issuing ₦80 billion in 2012, ₦87.5 billion in 2017, and ₦137.3 billion in 2020—each targeted at bridging the funding gaps in infrastructure and social services.

All previous issuances have either been fully repaid or remain performing, a record that underscores Lagos’s reputation as a dependable borrower. The latest bond is expected to follow the same path, reinforcing investor trust and demonstrating the government’s commitment to fiscal integrity.

Sustaining Growth and Urban Renewal

Lagos faces the dual challenge of managing rapid urbanization and financing large-scale infrastructure to meet the needs of its over 20 million residents. The new bond issuance is designed to address these challenges by mobilizing long-term capital for critical sectors—especially transport, power, and housing.

Financial analysts predict that the attractive yield range and the State’s proven repayment record will ensure oversubscription. Beyond funding development, the transaction is also expected to deepen Nigeria’s subnational debt market and promote investor confidence in infrastructure-backed state securities.

Recognition for Financial Leadership

In recognition of his administration’s commitment to fiscal innovation and transparent market engagement, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu will be honoured at the upcoming Nairametrics Capital Market Awards for his role in positioning Lagos as the financial hub of West Africa.

The State’s continued engagement with the capital market, experts say, highlights a forward-looking financing strategy that balances sustainability with growth—ensuring that Lagos not only meets its infrastructure needs but also sets a blueprint for other Nigerian states seeking to tap into domestic capital markets.

As Lagos reaffirms its leadership in subnational debt issuance, the ₦200 billion bond marks another decisive step toward building a smarter, more connected, and economically vibrant megacity.

The Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved three landmark policies aimed at accelerating Nigeria’s transition into a digital and knowledge-driven economy, in what government officials describe as a major step toward unlocking innovation, trade, and global competitiveness.

According to a statement from the State House, the policies were presented by Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, and are aligned with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda. Together, they are designed to diversify Nigeria’s economic base by strengthening the intellectual property system, advancing digital trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and promoting services exports through talent development.

“The policies are designed to strengthen Nigeria’s intellectual property ecosystem, unlock opportunities in digital trade, and expand the country’s footprint in the global services export market,” the State House said in a statement released Saturday.

1. Intellectual Property Reform: Turning Ideas into Capital

The first policy, the National Intellectual Property Policy and Strategy (NIPPS), is Nigeria’s first-ever unified framework for protecting and commercialising intellectual property rights.

Developed with technical assistance from the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) and input from over 200 stakeholders, NIPPS aims to transform creative and innovative ideas into valuable economic assets.

“NIPPS positions Nigeria as a regional hub for intellectual property and innovation in West and Central Africa,” the presidency stated. “It connects innovators, creators, and investors to turn ideas into economic assets.”

The policy is expected to boost Nigeria’s creative industries, encourage innovation, and attract foreign investment by providing a structured system for protecting and monetising intellectual property.

2. AfCFTA Digital Trade Protocol: Nigeria Takes the Lead

The second reform involves the ratification of the AfCFTA Protocol on Digital Trade, a key milestone that cements Nigeria’s leadership role in shaping Africa’s $3.4 trillion single market.

The protocol establishes continent-wide standards for e-commerce, data governance, cybersecurity, and consumer protection, providing a more predictable and harmonised environment for digital transactions.

By endorsing the agreement, Nigeria is positioning itself as a continental leader in digital commerce, opening new opportunities in fintech, e-commerce, and creative technology sectors.

3. Services Export Mechanism: Talent as a Growth Engine

The third initiative, the National Coordination Mechanism for Services Exports, will be driven by the National Talent Export Programme (NATEP).

The policy aims to enhance Nigeria’s global competitiveness in digital outsourcing and professional services — sectors that are becoming vital to the global economy.

According to the presidency, the mechanism is expected to create one million new jobs and generate $10 billion annually in GDP contributions by 2030.

“This positions Nigeria as Africa’s hub for digital outsourcing and professional services,” the statement noted.

The policy will streamline processes to export Nigerian talent and expertise, capitalizing on the global demand for skilled professionals in technology, finance, healthcare, and engineering.

A New Chapter in Economic Transformation

The three reforms collectively mark a strategic pivot in Nigeria’s economic policy — one that places ideas, data, and talent at the heart of industrialisation and national development.

“The three reforms signal a bold new chapter in Nigeria’s economic transformation where ideas, data, and talent drive growth, industrialisation, and sustainable prosperity,” the State House said.

As Nigeria embraces this digital future, the country is not merely adapting to global trends but actively shaping them, strengthening its role as a continental leader in innovation, trade, and digital transformation.

Background: Building a Future-Ready IP Economy

Earlier this year, Nairametrics reported that the Federal Government planned to launch NIPPS by July 2025 to strengthen protections for innovators, creatives, and entrepreneurs.

The policy targets longstanding issues such as piracy and intellectual property theft that have hindered growth in Nigeria’s creative and tech sectors. By introducing clear legal frameworks and commercial pathways, it aims to encourage innovation, reduce financial risks, and unlock new revenue streams for creators and businesses.

Minister Oduwole emphasized the strategic importance of IP as an economic driver:

“IP is a strategic enabler for trade, and as we mobilise our IP ecosystem, we are strengthening the backbone of licensing, royalties, franchising, and digital content export.”

The Nigerian naira maintained its upward momentum in early November, strengthening against the British pound sterling and breaking a major resistance level that had held for months. The local currency’s resilience—driven by steady foreign exchange inflows, strong Central Bank reforms, and improved investor sentiment—has kept the pound-to-naira exchange rate below ₦1,900/£ throughout the first week of November.

Data from the interbank and official markets showed that the pound traded between ₦1,885 and ₦1,890/£ during the final trading sessions of the week. Though the parallel (black) market recorded slightly higher rates due to premiums, the currency remained relatively stable, hovering below ₦1,950/£.

This performance underscores the naira’s sustained recovery in 2025—a turnaround that contrasts sharply with the heavy depreciation witnessed in 2023 and early 2024. Analysts attribute this renewed strength to a combination of policy consistency, improved oil earnings, and market-oriented measures implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

CBN Reforms and Reserve Gains Strengthen Naira

The CBN’s shift toward a more transparent and unified exchange rate regime, coupled with active liquidity management, has restored confidence in the foreign exchange market. The apex bank’s regular interventions, supported by stronger oil receipts and diaspora remittances, have also contributed to a steady increase in foreign reserves.

As of early November 2025, reserves stand above $43 billion—a figure that continues to provide a buffer against external shocks. This improved reserve position has enabled the CBN to smoothen volatility, ensuring that both the official and parallel market rates remain within a narrow band.

Market watchers believe the naira’s current stability is also supported by reduced speculative demand, improved dollar supply from exporters, and corporate conversions at the end of the month. However, they caution that pressures could re-emerge toward the end of the year due to festive-season imports and pre-election fiscal spending.

Trade Relations and Economic Context

Nigeria’s trade relationship with the United Kingdom remains robust, buoyed by post-Brexit agreements and strengthened Commonwealth ties. Between July 2024 and June 2025, total bilateral trade in goods and services between the two nations reached £8 billion—an 11.1% increase from the same period the previous year.

Despite these gains, Nigeria remains susceptible to fluctuations in global oil prices, which still play a dominant role in the country’s external earnings. Economists emphasize the need for Nigeria to sustain its non-oil export diversification drive to ensure long-term foreign exchange stability.

Naira Also Holds Firm Against the U.S. Dollar

Alongside its gains against the pound, the naira continued to hold firm against the U.S. dollar. At the official market, the currency traded between ₦1,435 and ₦1,438/$1 during the week, closing at ₦1,435.03 on November 7—a slight 0.22% decline from the previous session. In the parallel market, rates averaged around ₦1,445–₦1,450/$1.

Year-to-date, the naira has appreciated between 7% and 14% against the dollar, recovering from its mid-year high of ₦1,624/$1 recorded in May 2025. Analysts credit the rebound to increased liquidity in the official market, rising investor confidence, and improved fiscal coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the CBN.

Global Market Dynamics: Pound Faces Pressure

The British pound has come under pressure globally, losing ground against the U.S. dollar due to renewed dollar strength and concerns about slowing UK growth. Earlier in the week, the pound fell to the $1.30 support level before recovering slightly to $1.31 by Friday’s close.

A combination of factors has driven the pound’s weakness: a rally in the U.S. dollar fueled by strong private-sector job growth, rising Treasury yields, and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will delay further rate cuts. In contrast, the Bank of England held its key rate steady at 4% and signaled a possible rate cut in December, adding to bearish sentiment around the pound.

Markets now widely expect a December rate cut, as reflected in short-dated gilt yields and forward curves. This policy divergence—between a patient U.S. Federal Reserve and a dovish Bank of England—has weighed on sterling’s attractiveness for investors.

The Broader Picture: What Lies Ahead

Global markets experienced volatility this week, with U.S. equities retreating from record highs as investors reassessed valuations in the technology and artificial intelligence sectors. Safe-haven demand boosted the dollar, while gold prices fluctuated as investors liquidated positions to cover equity losses.

For Nigeria, the immediate outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The naira’s resilience is expected to persist if current reforms are maintained and oil prices remain relatively stable. However, external shocks—such as U.S. interest rate changes or global commodity price swings—could test this stability.

In the week ahead, market participants will be watching for key data releases, including the UK’s employment figures and the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. These data points will likely shape investor sentiment across currency markets.

Bottom Line

The naira’s performance against the pound and dollar in November reflects growing confidence in Nigeria’s economic management and foreign exchange reforms. With the British pound staying below ₦1,900/£ and the U.S. dollar holding around ₦1,435/$1, the local currency appears poised to end the year on a stronger footing—provided fiscal discipline, steady oil inflows, and investor confidence are maintained.

Nigeria’s 2025 currency rally demonstrates that, despite structural challenges, resilience and reform can yield tangible gains for both the economy and the naira.