Nigeria’s external position is expected to strengthen further in 2026, with the country’s current account surplus projected to rise to $18.81 billion, equivalent to 11.16% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This outlook was contained in the 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), underscoring growing optimism around export performance, remittance inflows, and gradual improvements in key sectors of the economy.
The 2026 projection represents a notable improvement over the estimated $16.94 billion surplus recorded in 2025, which accounted for 10.94% of GDP. According to the apex bank, the widening surplus reflects stronger external earnings, even as pressures from rising imports, services payments, and investment income outflows are expected to persist.
Stronger exports to anchor external balance
At the core of the improved outlook is a stronger goods account, supported by rising export receipts. The CBN projects that Nigeria’s total export earnings will increase to $58.26 billion in 2026, up from $54.59 billion in 2025. This growth is expected to come from both oil and non-oil exports, reflecting ongoing reforms and targeted interventions across key productive sectors.
On the oil front, the CBN noted that higher export earnings are anchored on expectations of increased domestic crude oil production. Improved security around oil installations, reduced disruptions, and renewed investments in the sector are expected to boost output and export volumes. These gains, if sustained, would strengthen Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings and help stabilise external balances.
Non-oil exports are also projected to remain on an upward trajectory. The CBN highlighted agricultural commodities and fertilisers as key growth drivers, supported by government initiatives aimed at improving the export value chain. According to the bank, policy interventions such as the recently launched National Export Trading Company—designed to address structural gaps in export logistics—and the National Intellectual Property Policy, which targets the expansion of creative exports, are expected to further enhance non-oil receipts in 2026.
Import growth and services deficit remain headwinds
Despite the positive export outlook, the CBN acknowledged that rising imports will continue to exert pressure on the external account. Total imports are projected to increase to $43.27 billion in 2026, compared with $39.92 billion in 2025. This rise is attributed largely to higher demand for capital goods as economic activity expands and infrastructure development gathers pace.
In addition, the services account deficit is expected to widen further, rising to $13.68 billion in 2026 from $12.80 billion in 2025. The apex bank attributed this to increased payments for business and transport services, including higher demand for research and development services, as well as rising freight charges associated with growing non-oil imports.
The primary income account is also projected to remain in deficit at $8.62 billion, reflecting higher investment income payments to foreign investors. The CBN noted that relatively attractive domestic yields are likely to continue drawing foreign portfolio inflows, which, while supporting capital inflows, also lead to increased interest and dividend repatriation.
Remittances to provide a major boost
On a more positive note, the secondary income account is expected to deliver a stronger surplus of $26.13 billion in 2026, up from $23.82 billion in 2025. This improvement is largely driven by higher diaspora remittances and increased transfers. The CBN also noted that part of these inflows may be linked to election-related activities, providing an additional boost to external receipts during the period.
What this means for Nigeria
Overall, the projected rise in Nigeria’s current account surplus points to tangible gains from oil sector reforms, export diversification efforts, and resilient remittance inflows. However, the outlook also highlights enduring structural challenges, including rising import dependence, widening services deficits, and growing income outflows associated with foreign investment.
Recent data reinforce this mixed picture. According to Nairametrics, Nigeria recorded a current account surplus of $3.42 billion in Q3 2025, down 41.14% from $5.81 billion in Q2 2025, and below the $5.78 billion recorded in Q3 2024. At the same time, foreign direct investment inflows surged to $720 million in Q3 2025, up sharply from $90 million in Q2, signalling renewed investor interest despite external pressures.
As Nigeria enters 2026, the CBN’s outlook suggests cautious optimism: stronger exports and remittances are improving the external balance, but sustaining these gains will depend on continued reforms, disciplined macroeconomic management, and progress in reducing structural vulnerabilities.
Emmanuel Bassey is a Financial Expert that has worked in the Banking and Finance Industry for over 15+ years across different banks in Nigeria
