Seplat Energy Plc has received a renewed vote of confidence from Zedcrest Wealth, with the investment firm reaffirming its BUY recommendation on the Nigerian energy major and assigning a new target price of N8,049.46 per share. At Seplat’s current market price of N5,809.00, the valuation implies a potential upside of approximately 38.6%, positioning the stock as one of the more compelling opportunities in Nigeria’s equities market heading into 2026.
According to Zedcrest, the upgraded outlook reflects a combination of improving macroeconomic conditions, structural reforms in Nigeria’s energy sector, and Seplat’s increasingly robust financial performance. The target price was derived using a blended valuation approach that combines Net Asset Value (NAV) and Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, a methodology the firm says better captures both Seplat’s asset base and its future earnings potential.
The positive call on Seplat was part of Zedcrest’s broader 2026 financial year outlook titled “Weak Global Pressures Meet Domestic Realities.” Within this framework, the firm also maintained a BUY rating on Aradel Holdings, projecting a more modest 17% upside to a target price of N798.35 per share. However, Seplat stood out as a top pick, driven by its scale, diversification across upstream and gas assets, and its ability to capitalize on Nigeria’s evolving energy landscape.
A key pillar of Zedcrest’s optimism is the notable improvement in Nigeria’s operating environment for oil and gas producers. Analysts pointed to a 16-year low in crude oil theft, attributed to enhanced security measures and tighter surveillance across key production corridors. This has helped stabilize output and restore investor confidence in the sector. In parallel, Nigeria’s crude oil production is projected to recover toward 2.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2026, a level not seen since 2005, offering a stronger revenue base for upstream-focused companies like Seplat.
On the gas front, Zedcrest highlighted growing optimism around the Assa North–Ohaji South (ANOH) gas processing project, a strategically important development for Nigeria’s domestic energy supply. First gas from the ANOH facility is expected by the fourth quarter of 2025, with full ramp-up anticipated in the first quarter of 2026. Phase one of the project is designed to deliver 300 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd), with capacity expected to double to 600 mmscfd in subsequent phases.
The ANOH project is jointly developed, with the Nigerian government holding a 57.5% stake and Seplat Energy emerging as the second-largest shareholder with a 20% interest. Zedcrest believes the project will play a critical role in accelerating Nigeria’s transition toward cleaner and more reliable energy sources, particularly compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for transportation, power generation, and industrial use. For Seplat, this positions the company at the center of Nigeria’s gas-led energy transition, providing stable, long-term cash flows that complement its upstream oil operations.
Seplat’s recent financial performance further underpins the bullish outlook. In the first nine months of 2025, the company delivered one of the strongest results in its history, with revenue surging 213% year-on-year to N3.3 trillion. Remarkably, this figure exceeded Seplat’s total combined revenue generated between 2020 and 2024, underscoring the scale of its recent growth.
Profitability also improved sharply. Operating profit rose to N1.09 trillion, up from N411.3 billion in the prior period, despite higher operating and finance costs. Pre-tax profit more than doubled to N878.9 billion, compared with N366.7 billion a year earlier, reflecting stronger margins and improved operational efficiency.
On the balance sheet, Seplat closed the period with retained earnings of N314 billion and shareholders’ equity of N2.6 trillion, although this represented a modest 4.6% decline year-on-year. Total assets stood at N9 trillion, slightly below the N9.8 trillion reported in the previous year, a movement analysts attribute to balance sheet optimization rather than underlying weakness.
Taken together, Zedcrest believes Seplat’s solid financial footing, exposure to Nigeria’s gas expansion, and improving sector fundamentals justify the upgraded valuation. With macro risks easing and domestic energy demand rising, the firm expects Seplat Energy to remain a key beneficiary of Nigeria’s push to stabilize production, deepen gas utilization, and unlock long-term value for shareholders as 2026 approaches.
Emmanuel Bassey is a Financial Expert that has worked in the Banking and Finance Industry for over 15+ years across different banks in Nigeria
