Nigeria spent N1.28 trillion on fuel imports in the third quarter of 2025, according to new trade data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The figure underscores the country’s continued dependence on imported petroleum products at a time when domestic refining capacity remains constrained and global oil market conditions remain volatile.
Although the Q3 number represents a reduction from the N2.3 trillion recorded in the second quarter of the year, the expenditure still highlights the structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s downstream sector. The drop signals short-term fluctuations in import volumes and global price movements rather than a fundamental shift in the country’s refining landscape.
Declining Imports but Persistent Pressure
The lower import bill in Q3 comes against the backdrop of ongoing supply challenges, tight global markets, and Nigeria’s limited domestic refining output. Despite multiple policy interventions and renewed investments in local refining, the country remains heavily reliant on foreign suppliers for petrol, diesel, kerosene, aviation fuel, and other refined products.
For context, Nigeria spent N15.4 trillion on fuel imports in 2024 alone—one of the highest in the nation’s history. That year’s massive import bill significantly pressured foreign exchange reserves and added fuel to the naira’s persistent instability. A large part of the pressure stemmed from the sharp depreciation of the naira, which increased local-currency costs of importing petroleum products.
Five-Year Trend Shows Deepening Import Dependence
A look at Nigeria’s petrol import bill over the last five years paints a clear picture of rising dependence and worsening vulnerabilities:
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2020: Fuel imports totaled N2.01 trillion, reflecting modest demand and lower global prices during the pandemic.
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2021: Import costs surged 126.9% to N4.56 trillion as demand rebounded and global price volatility intensified.
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2022: Spending climbed further to N7.71 trillion, driven by higher crude oil prices and weak domestic refining capacity.
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2023: A slight dip to N7.51 trillion (-2.6%) was recorded, partly due to temporary market adjustments and marginal price moderation.
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2024: Import costs spiked dramatically by 105.3% to N15.42 trillion, largely driven by a 40.9% depreciation of the naira and persistent supply gaps.
The 2025 Q3 data suggests marginal relief but not sustainable improvement, especially as domestic demand remains strong and global markets remain unpredictable.
Dangote Refinery’s Expansion: A Potential Turning Point
A major development that could reshape Nigeria’s fuel import profile is the expansion of the Dangote Refinery, which announced plans in October to grow its production capacity from 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.4 million bpd. Once completed, this would make it the largest refinery in the world, overtaking India’s Jamnagar Refinery.
Analysts say the project positions Nigeria to become not only self-sufficient in refined products but also a major exporter within Africa and beyond. The Federal Government has openly described the refinery as a “game changer,” pledging full support for the expansion plans.
Production and Consumption Indicators
Nigeria’s crude oil production also recorded a slight uptick. According to recent data from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), crude output rose from 1.401 million bpd in October to 1.436 million bpd in November, reflecting gradual recovery efforts in the upstream sector.
On the demand side, government statistics show that the country’s average daily petrol consumption dropped to 52.9 million litres per day in November 2025. This decline signals evolving consumption patterns, possibly influenced by high pump prices, economic adjustments, and improving availability of alternatives such as gas-powered vehicles.
What the Numbers Mean
Despite the temporary drop in Q3 fuel import spending, Nigeria’s long-term dependence on foreign refined products remains a major economic challenge. High import bills strain foreign reserves, weaken the naira, and expose the economy to global price shocks. Stakeholders believe that only sustained investment in domestic refining—including the ramp-up of the Dangote Refinery and rehabilitation of state-owned facilities—can provide a lasting solution.
Until then, Nigeria’s fuel import bill will remain a sensitive economic indicator, closely linked to inflation, exchange rate stability, and the overall cost of living.
Emmanuel Bassey is a Financial Expert that has worked in the Banking and Finance Industry for over 15+ years across different banks in Nigeria
