In reflecting on Nigeria’s economic journey, I feel a mix of pride in how far we’ve come, regret over missed opportunities, and confidence that the most challenging chapter of our economic story is now behind us. Despite lingering difficulties, Nigeria has turned a decisive corner — and the path ahead, while demanding, is one of promise and progress.
From Crisis to Stability
When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office in 2023, Nigeria faced a near-fiscal collapse. Economic growth was stagnating, inflation was surging, and entrenched distortions — fuel subsidies, multiple exchange rates, and investor uncertainty — had eroded confidence.
The administration’s immediate mandate was clear: remove distortions, reward productivity, and rebuild the foundation for private-sector-led growth.
Two years later, the results are becoming visible.
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GDP growth reached 4.23% in Q2 2025.
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Inflation, while still high, has eased to 18.02% after six consecutive months of decline.
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The naira has stabilised, with the gap between official and parallel rates narrowing to just 1%, down from nearly 70%.
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Foreign reserves have climbed to $43 billion, the highest level since 2019.
These indicators show more than macroeconomic progress — they signal renewed stability and a foundation for inclusive growth.
Tackling Inflation and Supporting Households
We understand that economic stability means little if citizens cannot afford basic necessities. Food inflation remains the biggest challenge, worsened by earlier currency depreciation and fuel subsidy removal.
Targeted interventions, however, are easing the burden. A bag of rice that cost around ₦120,000 last year now sells for about ₦80,000, while prices of staples such as garri, tomatoes, and pepper have fallen.
To protect the most vulnerable, 8.1 million households have received direct cash support. These transfers, part of a broader safety net initiative, are cushioning the impact of reforms while identity verification continues to expand coverage toward 15 million households.
At the same time, government policies are ensuring that smallholder farmers — the backbone of food production — remain motivated to plant for the next season through programmes that secure their incomes and access to inputs.
Confronting Debt and Strengthening Revenue
Nigeria’s debt servicing costs remain high, reflecting years of heavy borrowing and elevated interest rates. Meanwhile, the country’s revenue-to-GDP ratio — around 10% — is among the lowest in Africa, limiting resources for public investment.
To address this, President Tinubu signed the Nigeria Tax Act on June 26, 2025, effective January 2026. This legislation simplifies tax compliance, broadens the base, plugs leakages, and establishes a more progressive tax system that protects low-income earners.
Complementing this is the Revenue Optimisation and Assurance Programme (RevOp), designed to boost government earnings and create fiscal space for investment in infrastructure, education, and healthcare.
Anchoring Growth in the Real Economy
Stability must translate into jobs and productivity. Nigeria’s growth strategy is anchored in key real sectors:
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Oil and Gas: With improved security and reduced oil theft, production has risen to 1.68 million barrels per day (including condensates). Ongoing refinery projects are laying the groundwork for downstream self-sufficiency.
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Agriculture: The government is improving food supply chains, expanding storage, and securing farmlands to boost domestic output.
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Manufacturing and Industry: New incentives are attracting private investors to build factories and strengthen local value chains.
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Technology and the Creative Economy: By investing in digital infrastructure, Nigeria is positioning itself as a hub for innovation and youth-driven enterprise.
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Solid Minerals: Export diversification efforts are tapping into global demand for critical minerals, expanding non-oil revenues.
Infrastructure remains the backbone of growth. Through public-private partnerships (PPPs), landmark projects like the Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano gas pipeline and the Project Bridge 90,000 km fibre expansion are transforming connectivity, energy access, and industrial competitiveness.
Restoring Confidence at Home and Abroad
Perhaps the most encouraging development is the return of confidence — from citizens, investors, and multilateral partners alike. Yet, confidence must be earned continuously through policy predictability, fiscal discipline, and sustained inflation control.
Nigeria’s medium-term growth target is 7% by 2027/2028. Achieving this requires not only sound government policy but also the active participation of the private sector, entrepreneurs, and everyday Nigerians.
The goal is simple yet profound: to ensure that macroeconomic gains translate into tangible improvements — affordable food, better schools, reliable power, accessible healthcare, and abundant jobs.
If we maintain this momentum and collective resolve, Nigeria’s next decade will be defined by shared prosperity, renewed confidence, and inclusive growth — a future where every Nigerian has a stake in the nation’s success.
