December 2025 – Page 4

Guinness, AustinLaz Power Christmas Eve Rally as All-Share Index Climbs to N97.8 Trillion

The Nigerian equities market closed Christmas Eve on a positive note, as renewed buying interest in select large- and mid-cap stocks lifted overall sentiment. Trading on Tuesday, December 24, 2025, ended with the benchmark All-Share Index (ASI) posting modest gains, supported by a sharp increase in market activity and strong performances from consumer goods and hospitality stocks.

Data from the Nigerian Exchange Group showed that the All-Share Index advanced by 185.7 points to settle at 153,539.8, representing a 0.12% increase from the previous session’s close of 153,354.1. Although the gain was relatively mild, it marked an encouraging end to trading ahead of the Christmas holiday and reinforced the market’s strong year-to-date performance.

One of the most striking features of the session was the surge in trading volume. Investors exchanged approximately 1.7 billion shares, a significant jump from the 677 million shares recorded in the prior session. This spike in turnover suggested heightened portfolio adjustments and bargain-hunting activities as investors repositioned ahead of the year-end.

Market capitalization edges higher

As a result of the positive close, total equity market capitalization inched up to N97.8 trillion, compared with N97.7 trillion previously. The day’s trades were executed across 19,372 deals, reflecting broad participation despite the holiday-shortened trading week.

On the gainers’ table, Guinness Nigeria emerged as the top performer, rallying by 9.98% to close at N318.60. The stock benefited from strong demand, as investors reacted positively to its fundamentals and ongoing recovery in the consumer goods sector. Closely following was Austin Laz, which gained 9.97% to close at N3.20, extending its recent upward momentum.

Other notable gainers included International Breweries, which rose by 9.85% to N14.50, Transcorp Hotels, up 9.83% to N170.90, and Aluminum Extrusion Industries (ALEX), which added 9.73% to settle at N16.35. Together, these stocks provided strong upward support to the index.

Losers trail amid mixed sentiment

Despite the generally positive tone, some stocks closed in negative territory. Legend Internet led the losers’ chart, shedding 9.26% to close at N4.90, while AXA Mansard Insurance declined by 7.14% to N13.00. Jaiz Bank dropped 5.45% to N4.51, MTN Nigeria lost 5.21% to close at N504.00, and NEM Insurance slipped 4.74% to N24.10.

Activity and value leaders

In terms of trading activity, Abbey Mortgage Bank dominated the volume chart, accounting for an overwhelming 1.12 billion shares traded during the session. Sterling Financial Holdings followed with 127 million shares, while Custodian Investment traded 115 million shares. First HoldCo and Access Holdings rounded out the top five by volume, with 40.8 million and 38.1 million shares traded, respectively.

By transaction value, Abbey Mortgage also led the market, recording trades worth N7 billion. Custodian Investment followed with N4.4 billion, while First HoldCo posted N2.18 billion. Zenith Bank and GTCO completed the top five by value, with trades worth N2.13 billion and N2.05 billion, respectively.

SWOOTs and FUGAZ performance

Stocks with market capitalisation above one trillion naira (SWOOTs) reflected a broadly bullish tone. Transcorp Hotels jumped 9.83%, Nigerian Breweries gained 1.28%, and BUA Cement advanced 0.57%. However, MTN Nigeria declined 5.21%, Lafarge Africa dipped 0.74%, and Dangote Cement eased marginally by 0.16%.

Among the banking heavyweights known as FUGAZ stocks, UBA climbed 6.6%, First HoldCo surged 5.37%, Zenith Bank edged up 0.8%, and GTCO gained 0.74%, while Access Holdings closed flat.

Market outlook

With the All-Share Index now firmly above the 153,500 level and year-to-date returns at an impressive 49.17%, analysts believe bullish momentum could persist if buying interest remains broad-based. Sustained inflows into large- and mid-cap stocks may push the market closer to the 155,000-point threshold in the near term, as investors maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook heading into the final trading days of the year.

Crypto Thefts Surge to $3.4 Billion in 2025 as North Korea Dominates Global Attacks

The global cryptocurrency industry endured one of its most challenging years in 2025, as digital asset thefts surged to more than $3.4 billion, underscoring persistent vulnerabilities in the rapidly evolving ecosystem. A new report by Chainalysis reveals that while the total number of attacks did not rise dramatically, the scale and financial impact of individual breaches increased sharply, reshaping the risk profile of the crypto market.

According to the report, the amount stolen in 2025 represents a 54% year-on-year jump from the $2.2 billion lost to hacks in 2024. This increase reflects a clear shift toward fewer but far more destructive incidents, with a handful of high-profile breaches accounting for the majority of losses recorded during the year. Analysts say this trend signals growing systemic risks, particularly for large exchanges and custodial platforms that hold vast pools of customer assets.

Fewer attacks, bigger losses

Chainalysis estimates that more than $3.4 billion worth of cryptocurrency was stolen between January and early December 2025. A single incident alone made a dramatic contribution to that figure: the February breach of Bybit, which resulted in losses estimated at about $1.5 billion. The attack now stands as the largest individual crypto theft ever recorded and was the primary driver behind the sharp rise in annual losses.

Beyond the headline numbers, the report highlights a structural change in how crypto thefts are carried out. Over the past three years, personal wallet compromises have become an increasingly important vector for attackers. Their share of total stolen value rose from just 7.3% in 2022 to 44% in 2024. In 2025, personal wallet breaches would have accounted for roughly 37% of losses if not for the outsized impact of the Bybit hack, which skewed overall figures.

The data further show that crypto thefts in 2025 were highly outlier-driven. For the first time on record, the ratio between the largest hack and the median theft exceeded 1,000 times, surpassing even the extremes seen during the 2021 bull market. The top three hacks alone were responsible for 69% of all losses linked to crypto services this year, highlighting how a small number of catastrophic failures can dominate industry-wide outcomes.

North Korea’s growing dominance

One of the most striking findings of the report is the continued dominance of North Korea as a nation-state threat actor in the crypto space. Despite a decline in the number of confirmed attacks attributed to the country, the financial value of its operations rose sharply. Chainalysis estimates that hackers linked to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) stole at least $2.02 billion in cryptocurrency in 2025, representing a 51% increase from 2024.

These attacks accounted for a record 76% of all service-related compromises during the year. Cumulatively, the lower-bound estimate of crypto assets stolen by DPRK-linked actors has now reached $6.75 billion, reinforcing concerns among regulators and security experts that digital assets remain a critical funding channel for the isolated state.

The report notes that North Korean hackers typically conduct fewer attacks than other criminal groups, but each operation tends to be far more lucrative. Their targets often include major exchanges, custodians, and Web3 firms with deep liquidity and complex operational structures. Chainalysis also highlights the group’s increasing reliance on sophisticated social engineering techniques, such as embedding IT workers within crypto companies or impersonating recruiters, investors, and acquisition partners to gain privileged access.

Once funds are stolen, DPRK-linked actors follow distinctive laundering patterns. Rather than moving assets in large, easily traceable tranches, they typically break transactions into smaller amounts, with more than 60% of transfers falling below $500,000. They also show a strong preference for Chinese-language money laundering networks, cross-chain bridges, and mixing services, while largely avoiding lending protocols, peer-to-peer exchanges, and even some KYC-free platforms commonly used by other cybercriminals.

What you should know

The crypto industry was shaken early in 2025 when Bybit disclosed that it had suffered a “sophisticated attack” resulting in the theft of Ethereum valued at about $1.4 billion from one of its offline wallets. The breach surpassed previous high-profile incidents, including the $624 million Ronin Network hack and the $611 million Poly Network exploit, according to data from Rekt, a platform that tracks Web3 and crypto-related breaches.

Overall, the 2025 figures reinforce a sobering reality: while security practices across the industry have improved in some areas—such as decentralised finance protocols—the stakes of failure are now far higher. As attackers become more selective and better resourced, the crypto sector faces mounting pressure to strengthen governance, internal controls, and cross-border cooperation to prevent a small number of devastating attacks from destabilising the broader market.

Gold Breaks $4,500 as Precious Metals Rally to Historic Highs

Global commodity markets witnessed a historic moment on Wednesday as gold surged past the $4,500-per-ounce threshold for the first time ever, underscoring a powerful rally across precious metals. The milestone reflects a potent mix of geopolitical anxiety, shifting monetary policy expectations, and sustained investor demand for safe-haven assets.

Spot gold climbed nearly 1% in early trading to hit an intraday record above $4,525 an ounce before paring gains to trade little changed later in the session. The advance marked a third consecutive day of gains and capped one of the strongest bull runs in the metal’s modern trading history. Analysts say the move above $4,500 is as much psychological as it is fundamental, reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge against uncertainty.

The rally was fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions in Venezuela, following fresh U.S. sanctions targeting oil tankers linked to the country’s exports, as well as mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in 2026. Lower borrowing costs typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making the metal more attractive to investors.

Best annual performance in decades

Gold is now up nearly 70% year-to-date, putting it on course for its strongest annual performance since 1979. Silver has delivered an even more dramatic rally, soaring almost 150% in 2025, while platinum has also recorded triple-digit gains. Market participants point to a rare convergence of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and structural factors driving the surge.

A key pillar of support has been aggressive central bank buying and steady inflows into exchange-traded funds. According to the World Gold Council, holdings in gold-backed ETFs have increased in every month of 2025 except May, highlighting consistent institutional demand. State Street’s SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold ETF, has expanded its holdings by more than 20% this year alone.

Gold’s resilience has also impressed traders. After retreating briefly from an October peak of $4,381 an ounce, prices rebounded swiftly, signaling strong underlying demand. Investment bank Goldman Sachs has forecast that gold could climb as high as $4,900 an ounce in 2026, with analysts warning that risks remain skewed to the upside should geopolitical tensions worsen or monetary easing accelerate.

Silver’s spectacular surge

Silver has outshone gold in percentage terms, breaking through $70 an ounce earlier in the week and climbing as high as $72.70, a new all-time high. The metal’s rally has been turbocharged by speculative inflows, lingering supply disruptions, and the aftershocks of a historic short squeeze in October.

Despite significant inflows of silver into London vaults, much of the world’s available supply remains concentrated in New York. Traders are closely watching a U.S. Commerce Department investigation into critical mineral imports, which could result in tariffs or restrictions and further tighten supply. These uncertainties have added fresh momentum to silver’s already explosive run.

Platinum joins the record-breaking spree

Platinum also extended its winning streak, jumping as much as 4% to surpass $2,300 an ounce for the first time since data tracking began in 1987. The metal has now risen for 10 consecutive sessions, its longest rally since 2017, and is up roughly 150% for the year—its largest annual increase on record.

Widely used in automotive catalytic converters and jewelry, platinum has benefited from tight global supplies and production disruptions in South Africa, one of the world’s largest producers. Analysts warn that the platinum market is heading for a third consecutive annual deficit, a dynamic that could keep prices elevated well into 2026.

Signs of overheating, but momentum intact

Technical indicators suggest the market may be entering overbought territory. Gold’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) climbed to around 81, while silver’s RSI hovered near 82—well above the 70 threshold typically associated with stretched valuations. Still, many analysts argue that strong fundamentals and persistent uncertainty justify higher prices in the near term.

By midday in London, spot gold was trading around $4,495 an ounce, silver hovered above $72, and platinum held firm above $2,300. Palladium, however, gave up earlier gains, lagging behind its precious-metal peers.

What you should know

Earlier in December, the World Gold Council projected that gold could rise a further 15–30% in 2026, extending its multi-year bull run. In 2025 alone, gold recorded more than 50 all-time highs and delivered returns exceeding 60%, driven by geopolitical instability, a weakening U.S. dollar, and strong momentum trading.

The report noted that institutional and retail investors, alongside central banks, significantly increased their exposure to gold as they sought diversification, inflation protection, and long-term stability. With global uncertainty showing little sign of easing, precious metals appear poised to remain at the center of investor attention heading into the new year.

Ekiti Sets the Pace as First State to Domesticate Nigeria Tax Administration Act

Ekiti State has taken a landmark step in Nigeria’s ongoing fiscal reforms by becoming the first subnational government to domesticate the Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA), reinforcing its commitment to modern, transparent, and efficient revenue administration. The move positions the state at the forefront of tax governance reform and signals a broader shift toward harmonised tax practices across the federation.

Governor Biodun Oyebanji formalised this transition on Wednesday with the signing into law of the Ekiti State Revenue Administration Law, 2025. The signing ceremony, held at the Executive Council Chamber in Ado-Ekiti, marked a double milestone for the state, as the governor also assented to the 2026 Appropriation Bill, tagged the “Budget of Sustainable Governance,” with a total size of N415.57 billion.

According to the state government, the newly enacted revenue law domesticated the NTAA at the subnational level, aligning Ekiti’s tax administration framework with national standards and ongoing federal tax reforms. By doing so, Ekiti has effectively set a template for other states seeking to streamline their tax systems, reduce leakages, and improve compliance.

Key highlights of the new revenue law

The Ekiti State Revenue Administration Law, 2025, repeals the Ekiti State Board of Internal Revenue Law of 2019, replacing it with a more robust and technology-driven framework. One of the most significant changes introduced by the law is the transition to a fully digital tax system. All tax payments, billing, and receipting processes in the state are now strictly electronic, eliminating cash-based transactions that have historically encouraged leakages and inefficiencies.

Under the new framework, the Ekiti State Internal Revenue Service (EKIRS) is established as the sole authority for revenue collection, effectively curbing the activities of unauthorised consultants and third-party collectors. This centralisation is expected to improve accountability and ensure that revenues due to the state flow directly into government coffers.

The law also empowers EKIRS with prosecutorial authority, allowing it to enforce compliance through administrative penalties and legal action against defaulters. In addition, Ekiti has adopted the harmonised list of taxes approved by the Joint Revenue Board, providing clarity and certainty for businesses operating within the state and reducing the risk of multiple taxation.

Speaking at the ceremony, Governor Oyebanji said the reforms were aimed at building trust between the government and taxpayers. “From today, Ekiti adopts a strictly electronic payment system. This will eradicate leakages and ensure that all payments go directly into the state’s coffers,” he stated, adding that transparency and fairness would remain central to the administration’s fiscal philosophy.

The Executive Secretary of the Joint Revenue Board, Segun Adesokan, commended Ekiti for fulfilling a commitment made during the Board’s retreat in Ikogosi last September. He described the move as historic, noting that Ekiti is the first state to domesticate the NTAA. Adesokan expressed optimism that other states would follow suit, paving the way for a more professional, autonomous, and efficient subnational revenue system nationwide.

The 2026 fiscal outlook

Alongside the tax reform, Governor Oyebanji also signed the 2026 budget into law. The N415.57 billion spending plan reflects a balanced fiscal strategy, with 53 per cent allocated to recurrent expenditure and 47 per cent dedicated to capital projects. According to the governor, the budget prioritises the completion of ongoing projects, while also strengthening critical sectors such as infrastructure and agriculture to drive inclusive growth.

He explained that the improved revenue administration framework would play a key role in funding development initiatives without placing undue burden on residents or businesses. The ceremony was attended by top state officials, including Deputy Governor Monisade Afuye and Speaker of the Ekiti State House of Assembly Adeoye Aribasoye, highlighting broad political support for the reforms.

What you should know

The Nigeria Tax Administration Act is a cornerstone of the Federal Government’s 2025 tax reform agenda. It introduces a unified procedural framework for tax assessment, collection, and enforcement across all tiers of government, replacing fragmented legacy laws. The Act is scheduled to take effect from January 2026.

Despite its objectives, some provisions of the NTAA have generated debate among stakeholders, particularly in emerging sectors. Players in the cryptocurrency industry, for instance, have raised concerns over proposed taxation of digital asset transactions. The Act introduces stringent compliance requirements for Virtual Asset Service Providers, including mandatory registration, extended KYC data retention, and compulsory reporting of large or suspicious transactions to tax authorities and the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit.

By domesticating the NTAA early, Ekiti State has not only aligned itself with national reforms but also sent a clear signal of its readiness to embrace modern tax governance and sustainable fiscal management.

Governor Mbah Signs Enugu 2026 Budget into Law, Sets Ambitious N870 Billion IGR Target

Governor Peter Mbah has signed the Enugu State 2026 Appropriation Bill into law, formally ushering in a new fiscal year defined by aggressive revenue mobilisation, institutional reforms, and accelerated development spending. The signing ceremony took place on Wednesday at the Enugu State Government House, shortly after the bill was swiftly passed by the State House of Assembly, underscoring a rare level of alignment between the executive and legislative arms of government.

With the governor’s assent, the 2026 budget takes immediate effect, positioning it as a continuation—and deepening—of the reforms initiated by the Mbah administration since assuming office. According to the governor, the new fiscal plan is designed to consolidate earlier gains, scale up infrastructure delivery, and entrench a governance culture anchored on efficiency, accountability, and long-term sustainability.

Speaking after signing the bill, Mbah said the 2026 budget is firmly rooted in principles of inclusivity, transparency, accountability, traceability, and the strengthening of institutions to ensure that every naira of public spending delivers value to residents. He emphasised that fiscal discipline and clear performance benchmarks would guide implementation across all ministries, departments, and agencies.

Central to the 2026 fiscal framework is an ambitious Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) target of N870 billion, a figure that would represent a dramatic leap in Enugu State’s revenue profile if achieved. Mbah expressed confidence that the target is not only realistic but attainable, citing the state’s recent revenue trajectory as evidence of sustained momentum.

“Our N870 billion IGR target is realisable,” the governor said. “We grew our IGR from below N30 billion in 2023 to over N180 billion in 2024, and we are on course to close 2025 at about N400 billion. With discipline, creativity, and hard work, we will not only achieve but overshoot N800 billion in 2026.”

He added that the administration’s strategy is focused on unlocking multiple streams of economic potential across Enugu State, ranging from infrastructure-led growth and investment attraction to reforms in land administration, taxation, and public service delivery. According to Mbah, these efforts will significantly reduce the state’s dependence on monthly allocations from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC).

Providing further context, the governor explained that the projected IGR would dwarf expected federal allocations, which he estimated would account for just 27 to 28 per cent of total revenue in 2026. “If we stay the course and realise this projected revenue, we can effectively govern Enugu State without recourse to FAAC. In that scenario, FAAC becomes savings for the future,” he stated.

Mbah, however, cautioned that meeting the IGR target would demand exceptional commitment from political appointees and public servants. He urged officials to abandon the mindset of prolonged festive breaks and adopt a results-driven approach to governance. “Generating over N800 billion means raising more than N70 billion monthly, over N18 billion weekly, and more than N2.5 billion daily. We do not have the luxury of wasting even one day,” he said, stressing that the administration is prepared to make short-term sacrifices in pursuit of long-term prosperity.

On the legislative side, Speaker of the Enugu State House of Assembly Enugu State House of Assembly, Uchenna Ugwu, praised the collaborative relationship between the executive and legislature, noting that early engagement and shared priorities made the budget process smooth and people-centred. He assured residents that the Assembly would rigorously exercise its oversight function to ensure faithful implementation.

Ugwu disclosed that the 2026 budget makes provisions for major infrastructure and social investment projects, including extensive road construction, a 135.5-kilometre rail project, the acquisition of additional aircraft, new transport terminals, smart secondary schools, and the completion of 260 farm estates across the state. These projects, he said, are expected to stimulate economic activity, create jobs, and improve living standards.

Earlier in the month, Governor Mbah had presented the appropriation bill to lawmakers, describing it as the “Budget of Renewed Momentum.” The proposal represents a 66.5 per cent increase over the N971 billion budget for 2025, reflecting the administration’s shift toward a more expansionary fiscal stance aimed at fast-tracking development.

With the 2026 budget now signed into law, implementation begins immediately, placing Enugu State on a bold fiscal path that prioritises self-reliance, accelerated growth, and the transformation of public finance management at the subnational level.

Funke Akindele’s Behind the Scenes Smashes N500 Million Box Office Mark in Just Two Weeks

Funke Akindele has once again rewritten Nollywood’s commercial playbook as her latest cinematic outing, Behind the Scenes, crossed the N500 million mark at the Nigerian box office barely two weeks after its theatrical release. The feat not only reinforces Akindele’s reputation as one of the industry’s most bankable figures but also sets a new benchmark for speed and scale in local cinema performance.

According to official box office figures released by FilmOne Entertainment, the film’s West African distributor, Behind the Scenes has now grossed N514 million across cinemas in Nigeria and Ghana. This milestone makes it the fastest Nollywood film on record to hit the half-billion-naira threshold, a distinction that underscores the film’s exceptional audience pull and sustained momentum since its debut.

The strong earnings also saw the movie retain its position as the number one film of the weekend, extending what distributors have described as a historic and largely uninterrupted run at the box office. Industry analysts say the performance is particularly noteworthy given the increasingly competitive cinema landscape and the pressures facing filmmakers from rising production, marketing, and distribution costs.

For Akindele, the success adds another major commercial win to an already formidable track record. In recent years, she has consistently delivered high-grossing titles that resonate with mass audiences, blending relatable storytelling with strong production values. Observers note that Behind the Scenes arriving at a time of economic strain and tightening consumer spending makes its rapid climb even more significant, pointing to the enduring appetite for well-made, locally produced stories that reflect familiar social realities.

Directed by Funke Akindele in collaboration with Tunde Olaoye, Behind the Scenes boasts a star-studded ensemble cast featuring Destiny Etiko, Ibrahim Chatta, Ini Dima-Okojie, Iyabo Ojo, Tobi Bakre, Uzor Arukwe, and Victoria Adeleye. The film runs for two hours and 24 minutes and carries a 12A rating, making it accessible to a broad cinema-going demographic.

At its core, the drama follows the life of Aderonke “Ronky-Fella” Faniran, a highly successful real estate entrepreneur whose generosity toward friends, family, and associates gradually begins to exact a heavy personal cost. As the story unfolds, the film interrogates themes of self-sacrifice, emotional boundaries, and the often-unspoken burden that comes with being perpetually dependable. Critics and audiences alike have praised the narrative for sparking conversations around responsibility, empathy, and the limits of giving.

The film is currently screening in major cinema hubs across Nigeria and Ghana, including Lagos, Abuja, Kaduna, and Accra. Akindele has previously revealed that the production budget exceeded N1 billion, highlighting the scale of investment behind the project and the high stakes attached to its theatrical performance. Crossing N500 million in just two weeks is therefore seen as a critical step toward recouping costs and achieving long-term profitability.

Audience response across West Africa has been overwhelmingly positive. Akindele has taken to social media to thank cinema-goers in Nigeria and Ghana, describing the box office run as a powerful affirmation of faith in both the story and the broader Nollywood industry. Many fans have echoed this sentiment, framing the film’s success as a win for local storytelling on a grand scale.

The film’s current achievements build on a record-breaking opening run. Behind the Scenes, which premiered on December 12, generated more than N200 million in its opening weekend alone—the highest opening-weekend gross recorded by any Nollywood film in 2025 so far. FilmOne disclosed that the movie sold 34,548 tickets between December 12 and 14, setting five separate opening-weekend records, including the highest admissions recorded in a single weekend this year.

Momentum had been building well before the official release. Advance screenings reportedly generated N27.2 million in ticket sales, the highest ever recorded for a Nollywood title. An earlier UK debut further signalled strong international appeal, recording over 1,550 admissions and selling out multiple screens—clear evidence of robust diaspora demand.

With Behind the Scenes still enjoying strong attendance and word-of-mouth buzz, industry watchers expect the film to push significantly beyond its current tally. In doing so, it not only strengthens Funke Akindele’s standing as Nollywood’s undisputed box office powerhouse but also reinforces confidence in the commercial viability of big-budget Nigerian cinema.

Gov. Makinde Signs N892 Billion Oyo 2026 Budget into Law, Hints at Possible N1 Trillion Supplementary Plan

Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, has signed the state’s N892 billion 2026 Appropriation Bill into law, officially setting the fiscal direction for another year of aggressive infrastructure expansion and sustained social sector investment. The signing ceremony, held on Monday at the Executive Chamber in Ibadan, marked the culmination of a budget process that state officials described as timely, disciplined, and reflective of evolving economic realities.

The event drew top government functionaries, members of the State Executive Council, and lawmakers from the Oyo State House of Assembly, who commended the administration for maintaining consistency in its budgeting calendar. Observers noted that early passage and assent have become a defining feature of the Makinde government’s fiscal management style, enabling MDAs to commence implementation without delays that often undermine public projects.

Speaking at the ceremony, Governor Makinde said the 2026 budget was anchored on realism and fiscal discipline, stressing that expenditure projections were closely aligned with achievable revenue targets. He reiterated his administration’s determination to further strengthen internally generated revenue (IGR) as a buffer against volatility in federal allocations. According to him, ministries, departments and agencies must fully align with the established implementation framework to ensure value for money and timely project delivery.

In a significant policy signal, the governor hinted that Oyo State could cross the symbolic N1 trillion budget threshold in 2026 if revenue performance exceeds projections. He explained that the government would not hesitate to approach the legislature with a supplementary appropriation should inflows outperform expectations. “If we experience a windfall or exceed our targets, we will send a supplementary budget so that critical developmental projects can be adequately funded,” Makinde said. If realised, such a move would place Oyo among a small group of subnational governments operating trillion-naira fiscal plans, underscoring its growing economic ambition.

The legislature, for its part, welcomed the governor’s approach. Speaker of the House, Adebo Ogundoyin, praised the executive–legislative harmony that ensured smooth passage of the budget. He said lawmakers adhered to global best practices in public finance management, emphasising transparency, predictability and accountability throughout the budget cycle. Ogundoyin added that the House would intensify its oversight responsibilities in 2026 to ensure that appropriated funds translate into tangible benefits for residents across all zones of the state.

With the budget now in force, implementation begins immediately, ushering the Makinde administration into its seventh fiscal year with renewed momentum. Analysts say the size of the 2026 budget reflects both confidence in the state’s revenue outlook and a willingness to leverage public spending as a catalyst for economic growth, job creation and service delivery.

The N892 billion budget also represents the latest milestone in Oyo State’s steadily expanding fiscal framework since Governor Makinde assumed office. Over the years, the state has transitioned from cautious consolidation to more assertive development spending, with a strong focus on infrastructure renewal, education, healthcare and revenue mobilisation.

This shift became more pronounced in the 2024 fiscal year, when the administration proposed a N434.4 billion budget, almost evenly split between capital and recurrent expenditure. Education took the largest share, followed by infrastructure and health, reflecting a deliberate emphasis on human capital development. The government also set ambitious IGR targets to reduce reliance on federal transfers.

By 2025, Makinde signed into law a N684.15 billion “Budget of Stabilisation,” representing a sharp year-on-year increase of more than 57 percent. Capital expenditure slightly outweighed recurrent spending, reinforcing the administration’s growth-oriented posture. Infrastructure again dominated allocations, with major funding directed at road networks and strategic transport corridors. Mid-year adjustments were also approved to accelerate priority projects, including the 48-kilometre Ido–Ibarapa Road, highlighting the government’s readiness to recalibrate spending in line with development timelines.

Against this backdrop, the 2026 budget—and the possibility of a supplementary push toward N1 trillion—signals Oyo State’s intent to consolidate its position as one of Nigeria’s more fiscally ambitious and reform-driven subnational economies.

FG, World Bank Roll Out $500m HOPE-GOV Programme to Strengthen Education and Primary Healthcare Nationwide

The Federal Government of Nigeria, in partnership with the World Bank, has commenced implementation of a $500 million reform programme aimed at strengthening basic education and primary healthcare delivery across the country. The initiative, known as the Human Capital Opportunities for Prosperity and Equity–Governance (HOPE-GOV) programme, is designed to address long-standing weaknesses in financial management, human resource planning, and service delivery at both federal and state levels.

The formal rollout of the programme was confirmed on Tuesday in Abuja by the HOPE-GOV National Coordinator, Assad Hassan, during a briefing with the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning, Deborah Odoh. According to Hassan, the programme represents a major shift toward performance-driven public sector reform, with funding directly linked to measurable outcomes in education and healthcare.

HOPE-GOV is structured as a results-based intervention, meaning that participating states must meet clearly defined targets before accessing funds. The approach is intended to improve accountability, strengthen governance systems, and ensure that public spending translates into tangible improvements in classrooms and primary healthcare centres.

How the programme is structured

Hassan explained that the $500 million World Bank–assisted facility is divided into two complementary components. The first is a Programme-for-Results (PforR) window, while the second is an Investment Project Financing (IPF) component.

Out of the total envelope, $480 million has been earmarked under the PforR framework to incentivise states that meet agreed Disbursement-Linked Results (DLRs) in basic education and primary healthcare. These results include improvements in budget transparency, timely release and utilisation of funds, recruitment and retention of frontline workers such as teachers and health personnel, and stronger reporting and audit systems.

The remaining $20 million, provided through the IPF component, will fund programme coordination, monitoring, independent verification, capacity building, and technical assistance to both federal and state institutions. Hassan noted that this support component is critical to ensuring the credibility and sustainability of the reforms.

Institutions driving implementation

Implementation of HOPE-GOV cuts across multiple levels of government and institutions. At the state level, governments are responsible for executing reforms and meeting agreed performance indicators. At the federal level, key implementing bodies include the Universal Basic Education Commission, the Ministerial Oversight Committee of the Basic Health Care Provision Fund housed within the Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, and the Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning.

The multi-institutional structure reflects the programme’s focus on systemic reform rather than isolated interventions, ensuring that improvements in education and healthcare are supported by stronger planning, budgeting, and governance frameworks.

Why HOPE-GOV matters

Nigeria continues to face severe human capital deficits. The country has one of the highest numbers of out-of-school children globally, while many primary healthcare centres remain understaffed, poorly equipped, and underfunded. Programme officials note that these challenges are compounded by weak public financial management systems at the sub-national level, including delayed audits, poor expenditure tracking, and inadequate data for decision-making.

Although statutory funding mechanisms such as the Universal Basic Education Fund and the Basic Health Care Provision Fund exist, many states struggle to access or fully utilise these resources due to counterpart funding gaps and weak planning capacity. HOPE-GOV seeks to break this cycle by encouraging states to invest upfront in reforms and then rewarding performance with additional funding.

Under the Programme-for-Results model, states that demonstrate progress against agreed indicators receive incentive payments, which can then be reinvested to further strengthen service delivery. This creates what officials describe as a virtuous cycle of reform, accountability, and reinvestment.

Timeline and approvals

Hassan provided additional context on the programme’s journey to implementation. The World Bank approved the HOPE-GOV Programme on September 26, 2024, following negotiations concluded in August of that year. The financing agreement received approval from the Federal Executive Council in February 2025, was countersigned in April 2025, and officially declared effective in September 2025.

Broader development push

The HOPE-GOV initiative aligns with broader World Bank and government efforts to strengthen Nigeria’s human capital base. Earlier in 2025, the World Bank pledged $1.2 billion to support girls’ education across 18 Nigerian states, targeting improvements in secondary education and empowerment of adolescent girls.

Taken together, these interventions signal a renewed focus on governance, accountability, and outcomes in Nigeria’s education and healthcare sectors. If effectively implemented, HOPE-GOV could help close persistent service delivery gaps, strengthen state capacity, and improve the quality of life for millions of Nigerians who depend on public schools and primary healthcare facilities.

Nigeria’s Gross Oil Revenue Falls Short of 2025 Budget Target in H1 as Fiscal Pressures Mount

Nigeria’s gross oil revenue underperformed budgetary expectations in the first half of 2025, with significant shortfalls recorded in both the first and second quarters, underscoring the persistent challenges confronting the country’s oil-dependent public finances. Data contained in the Q1 and Q2 2025 Budget Implementation Reports released by the Budget Office of the Federation reveal that actual oil receipts fell well below the prorated quarterly benchmarks set in the 2025 Appropriation Act.

The reports show that while oil revenue posted year-on-year improvements compared with 2024, collections remained far short of the levels assumed in the budget. At the same time, non-oil revenue performance was mixed—missing targets in the first quarter but showing modest improvement in the second—while net distributable revenue available to the federal, state, and local governments remained substantially below projections.

Oil revenue gaps persist despite year-on-year gains

In the first quarter of 2025, Nigeria recorded gross oil revenue of N4.55 trillion. This represented a massive shortfall of N8.21 trillion, or 64.35 percent, compared with the prorated quarterly budget target of N12.76 trillion. Despite the gap, the figure marked an improvement of N1.20 trillion, or 35.82 percent, over the N3.35 trillion generated in the corresponding period of 2024, reflecting some recovery in oil receipts year on year.

Non-oil revenue in Q1 also underperformed expectations. Gross non-oil revenue stood at N4.71 trillion, which was N1.34 trillion, or 22.18 percent, below the quarterly projection of N6.05 trillion. After accounting for statutory deductions, the total net distributable revenue shared among the three tiers of government amounted to N8.06 trillion. This was N8.79 trillion, or 52.16 percent, lower than the amount envisaged in the budget.

The trend continued into the second quarter of the year. In Q2 2025, gross oil revenue rose slightly to N4.77 trillion but still missed the quarterly target by N7.99 trillion, representing a 62.62 percent shortfall. Compared with the second quarter of 2024, oil revenue improved by N1.59 trillion, or 33.33 percent, from N3.18 trillion, reinforcing the picture of gradual recovery that nonetheless remains insufficient to meet fiscal assumptions.

Non-oil revenue shows mild improvement in Q2

Unlike oil receipts, non-oil revenue performance improved modestly in the second quarter. Gross non-oil revenue increased to N4.46 trillion, delivering a positive variance of N404.26 billion, or 6.68 percent, above the quarterly estimate. However, even with this improvement, overall revenue remained constrained.

Net distributable revenue for the three tiers of government stood at N9.85 trillion in Q2, but this figure was still N7.01 trillion, or 41.58 percent, below budget expectations. The persistent shortfalls in distributable revenue continue to limit fiscal space for subnational governments, many of which rely heavily on monthly allocations from the Federation Account to meet salary and infrastructure obligations.

What the numbers mean for fiscal stability

The sustained gap between actual oil revenue and budget projections highlights ongoing structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s oil sector. Production constraints, crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, operational inefficiencies, and price volatility have continued to weigh on output and revenue remittances. Although oil revenue has improved on a year-on-year basis, the pace of recovery has not matched the ambitious assumptions embedded in the 2025 budget.

These revenue pressures come at a time of rising expenditure commitments, including higher debt servicing costs, expanded social spending, and increased recurrent expenditure. The combination of weaker-than-expected revenues and growing spending needs places additional strain on fiscal management and raises concerns about borrowing requirements in the second half of the year.

Production challenges remain

Data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) further illustrate the challenges facing Nigeria’s oil sector. OPEC’s latest report shows that Nigeria’s crude oil production rose marginally to 1.436 million barrels per day (bpd) in November 2025, up from 1.401 million bpd in October. Despite the increase, Nigeria failed to meet its OPEC-assigned production quota for the fourth consecutive month, with July 2025 being the last time it met its target.

OPEC data also indicate that Nigeria averaged 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter of 2025, down from 1.481 million bpd in Q2 and 1.468 million bpd in Q1, pointing to a gradual decline in output over the year.

Adding another layer to the outlook, recent federal government data show that Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption declined to an average of 52.9 million litres per day in November 2025, signalling shifting domestic fuel demand patterns that could affect downstream revenue dynamics.

Outlook

Overall, the first-half performance of Nigeria’s oil revenue in 2025 underscores the urgent need for more realistic budget assumptions, stronger production management, and sustained reforms in revenue administration. Without significant improvements in output and remittance efficiency, oil revenue is likely to continue lagging expectations, reinforcing the importance of accelerating non-oil revenue mobilization to stabilize public finances.

Nigeria Ships 33.23 Million Barrels to the U.S., Emerging as Africa’s Top Crude Exporter in 2025

Nigeria has reaffirmed its strategic position in the global energy market after emerging as Africa’s leading exporter of crude oil to the United States in the first eight months of 2025. Fresh data released by the United States Mission shows that Africa’s largest oil producer shipped a total of 33.23 million barrels of crude oil to the U.S. between January and August 2025, with an estimated value of $2.57 billion.

The disclosure, shared via the official X (formerly Twitter) handle of the U.S. Mission, highlights Nigeria’s dominance in transatlantic crude oil trade during the period. According to the statement, Nigeria alone accounted for more than half of all African crude oil exports to the United States, underlining the depth of energy ties between both countries.

“Did you know that Nigeria was the leading African exporter of crude oil to the United States between January and August 2025, shipping 33.23 million barrels worth $2.57 billion?” the mission noted, adding that the trade relationship “creates jobs and drives prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic.”

What the data reveals

The January–August figures represent a strong rebound in Nigeria’s crude exports to the U.S., at a time when global energy markets have been shaped by supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and shifting demand patterns. The data underscores Nigeria’s growing relevance in the U.S. energy supply mix, particularly as Washington continues to diversify its crude oil sources.

However, 2025 has also delivered a historic twist in the long-standing petroleum relationship between both countries. For the first time, Nigeria imported more crude oil from the United States than it exported during certain months of the year, marking a reversal of traditional trade flows.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), this unusual development occurred in February and March 2025. During those months, U.S. crude exports to Nigeria surged, while American imports of Nigerian crude declined sharply.

EIA figures show that U.S. exports to Nigeria rose to about 111,000 barrels per day (b/d) in February and jumped further to 169,000 b/d in March. In contrast, U.S. imports from Nigeria fell to 54,000 b/d and 72,000 b/d respectively, compared with 133,000 b/d recorded in January.

Why the trade pattern shifted

Analysts attribute this temporary reversal primarily to changes in Nigeria’s domestic refining landscape, most notably the ramp-up of operations at the Dangote Refinery. The mega-refinery, which began processing crude oil in January 2024, has steadily increased demand for feedstock and is expected to reach its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day later in 2025.

As the refinery scaled up, Nigeria increasingly sourced crude oil—including certain grades—from international markets, including the United States, to complement domestic supply and optimize refinery operations. At the same time, reduced demand on the U.S. East Coast contributed to lower American imports of Nigerian crude during those months.

Despite this short-term shift, Nigeria’s overall export performance to the U.S. remained robust across the eight-month period, cementing its position as the continent’s top supplier.

What this means for Nigeria and the U.S.

For Nigeria, the surge in crude exports translates into stronger foreign exchange earnings, improved trade balances, and reinforced bilateral economic ties with the United States. Oil remains a critical pillar of Nigeria’s economy, supporting government revenues, foreign reserves, and employment across upstream, midstream, and downstream segments.

The strong export numbers also signal renewed investor confidence in Nigeria’s oil sector, following years of production challenges linked to oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment. Sustained export growth could encourage further capital inflows into exploration, production, and infrastructure upgrades.

For the United States, Nigeria provides a reliable and geopolitically strategic source of crude oil from Africa, helping to enhance energy security and diversify supply chains amid global uncertainty. Nigerian crude, particularly its light and sweet grades, remains attractive to U.S. refiners due to lower refining costs and higher yields.

A resilient oil sector amid global volatility

Overall, Nigeria’s performance in 2025 highlights the resilience of its oil export sector despite fluctuating global energy markets. While the country is increasingly focused on expanding non-oil exports and reducing overdependence on hydrocarbons, crude oil continues to play a central role in shaping economic outcomes.

As refining capacity expands domestically and export routes stabilize, Nigeria’s position in global energy trade—especially with key partners like the United States—is likely to remain strong, even as the broader economy gradually diversifies beyond oil.

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Month: December 2025

Market capitalization edges higher

Losers trail amid mixed sentiment

Activity and value leaders

SWOOTs and FUGAZ performance

Market outlook

Fewer attacks, bigger losses

North Korea’s growing dominance

What you should know

Best annual performance in decades

Silver’s spectacular surge

Platinum joins the record-breaking spree

Signs of overheating, but momentum intact

What you should know

Key highlights of the new revenue law

The 2026 fiscal outlook

What you should know

How the programme is structured

Institutions driving implementation

Why HOPE-GOV matters

Timeline and approvals

Broader development push

Oil revenue gaps persist despite year-on-year gains

Non-oil revenue shows mild improvement in Q2

What the numbers mean for fiscal stability

Production challenges remain

Outlook

What the data reveals

Why the trade pattern shifted

What this means for Nigeria and the U.S.

A resilient oil sector amid global volatility