Month: November 2025

The Federal Government has officially launched the 2025/2026 dry-season wheat farming programme under the National Agricultural Growth Scheme and Agro-Pocket (NAGS-AP), setting an ambitious production target valued at approximately N160 billion. The initiative aims to support and empower 80,000 registered wheat farmers across the country, marking one of Nigeria’s largest coordinated efforts to boost domestic wheat production and reduce reliance on imports.

The programme was formally flagged off on Saturday in Borno State by Governor Babagana Umara Zulum at the Jere Bowl in Dusuman, Jere Local Government Area. Borno, known for its vast irrigation potential and expanding agricultural footprint, serves as a strategic host for the launch, reflecting its growing prominence in Nigeria’s crop production landscape.

40,000 Hectares Allocated Nationwide

The Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Senator Abubakar Kyari, who spoke at the launch, explained that the government has earmarked 40,000 hectares for wheat cultivation during the dry season. Of this, 3,000 hectares—representing support for 6,000 farmers—have been allocated to Borno State alone.

Kyari noted that the scheme will be implemented across 16 wheat-producing states, including Adamawa, Bauchi, Cross River, Gombe, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Niger, Plateau, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, and Zamfara. These states were selected based on their comparative advantages in irrigation infrastructure, farmer capacity, and historical crop performance.

“For the 2025/2026 season, we are targeting 80,000 registered farmers with an expected output value of approximately N160 billion,” Kyari stated. He added that the programme will later expand to support other high-value crops, in line with the Federal Government’s broader agricultural transformation and food security strategy.

Zulum: Wheat Programme is Transformative for Borno

Governor Zulum praised the programme’s design, calling it a significant step toward transforming Borno’s agricultural economy. He highlighted that, in recent years, the state has made notable progress in irrigation development, mechanisation, and farmer support—all of which position Borno to contribute substantially to Nigeria’s wheat output.

“Here in Borno State, wheat cultivation is not just a programme; it is a transformative initiative,” Zulum said. “With targeted investments in irrigation systems, quality inputs, mechanised tools, and strong extension services, we are empowering our farmers to boost yields, expand productivity, and contribute to national food supply.”

Zulum also expressed appreciation to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for prioritizing agricultural development under the Renewed Hope Agenda. According to him, the President’s commitment to food security has created an enabling environment for progressive initiatives such as the NAGS-AP wheat programme.

Inputs to Boost Productivity

Farmers participating in the programme will benefit from a full package of subsidised inputs, including high-yield wheat seedlings, blended fertilisers, pesticides, tractors, and other mechanised implements. These are intended to help farmers maximise yields during the dry season and reduce Nigeria’s heavy dependence on imported wheat—a major driver of food inflation.

Kyari said the programme aligns with the Federal Government’s broader aim of revitalising the agricultural sector through innovative, data-driven, and technology-supported interventions.

Broader Agricultural Investment Strategy

The wheat programme also complements Nigeria’s larger agricultural investment commitments. In September, Senator Kyari announced the Federal Government’s partnership with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) under the $3.14 billion Hand-in-Hand Initiative, a transformative plan designed to overhaul key agricultural value chains.

The initiative focuses on developing five priority value chains—tomato, cassava, maize, dairy, and fisheries—while targeting poverty reduction, improved nutrition, and food sovereignty. It also aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the African Union’s Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP).

A Step Toward Food Security and Import Substitution

Nigeria currently imports over $2 billion worth of wheat annually, making wheat one of the country’s most expensive and strategic food commodities. By boosting local wheat production, the Federal Government aims to reduce this burden, strengthen food security, and stabilise prices of wheat-based food products such as bread, pasta, and noodles.

The launch of the 2025/2026 wheat programme signals a renewed commitment to large-scale agricultural development, farmer empowerment, and long-term economic resilience.

With 80,000 farmers supported, 40,000 hectares under cultivation, and an output projection of N160 billion, the Federal Government believes the initiative will not only transform rural livelihoods but also reinforce Nigeria’s march toward self-sufficiency in key staple crops.

The Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Zacch Adedeji, has emphasized that Nigeria must urgently shift to selecting public infrastructure projects—such as roads, ports, and power investments—based strictly on their potential economic returns if the country intends to overcome its persistent revenue constraints. Adedeji made this assertion on Friday while delivering a keynote lecture at the University of Ilesa’s Founders’ Day celebration, where he outlined strategic measures needed to reposition Nigeria’s revenue system for long-term fiscal sustainability.

According to him, Nigeria’s existing project selection culture, which often prioritizes political considerations over economic impact, is no longer sustainable. With dwindling government revenues and rising obligations, he argued that public infrastructure projects must now pass a more rigorous economic justification process, ensuring they can attract private-sector participation, expand productive capacity, stimulate trade, and ultimately generate measurable returns to the treasury.

Four Strategic Actions to Reverse Revenue Decline

Adedeji explained that adopting an economic-returns-driven approach to project selection is only one of four key policy steps that Nigeria must embrace if it hopes to reverse its downward revenue trajectory. The first and most critical measure, he said, is a deliberate and aggressive Domestic Revenue Mobilization (DRM) effort. This includes both broadening the tax net and deepening the government’s ability to collect taxes fairly, efficiently, and sustainably.

While Nigeria’s tax system has historically leaned heavily on a relatively small number of large formal-sector businesses, Adedeji stressed that such a concentration is inadequate and unfair. He noted that enormous revenue opportunities remain untapped in the informal sector, digital economy, and among high-net-worth individuals—groups that continue to operate outside the tax net despite their growing economic footprint.

Leveraging Technology to Close Compliance Gaps

The FIRS Chairman highlighted the progress already being made through technology-driven tax administration. Platforms such as TaxPro Max, e-TCC, and new tax intelligence systems have significantly improved compliance monitoring, taxpayer verification, and digital filing. These tools, he said, are closing long-standing loopholes and ensuring that tax obligations are tracked with greater precision and transparency.

By modernizing tax administration, the FIRS intends to make compliance simpler for honest taxpayers while increasing pressure on individuals and businesses who have historically evaded their obligations.

Strengthening Fiscal Discipline and Budget Credibility

Another major focus of Adedeji’s lecture was the need for Nigeria to improve its budget credibility. He cautioned that budgeting must be anchored in realism—meaning that government spending plans must be backed by verifiable revenue expectations, rather than optimistic projections that quickly collapse during implementation.

He also called for enhanced adherence to fiscal rules such as debt ceilings, savings benchmarks, and medium-term expenditure frameworks. Transparent procurement processes, he added, are essential for eliminating waste and strengthening public accountability.

Infrastructure and Diversification Must Be Data-Driven

Adedeji reiterated that infrastructure development remains central to Nigeria’s economic transformation, but he emphasized that such investments must now be strategic and data-driven. Roads, ports, energy facilities, and other capital projects should be selected for their ability to unlock economic opportunities, reduce logistics costs, attract private-sector financing, and improve Nigeria’s competitiveness.

“Infrastructure development should be strategic, data-informed, and private-sector aligned,” he stated, adding that true economic diversification requires “capital, coordination, and courage.”

Importance of Institutional Strengthening

The FIRS Chairman also advocated for greater institutional reforms, including improved inter-agency coordination and enhanced autonomy for key economic institutions such as the FIRS, Nigeria Customs Service, and the Budget Office. Stronger institutions, he argued, are essential for enforcing compliance, enhancing efficiency, and driving consistent fiscal reforms across government.

Revenue Performance Highlights Structural Inequality

Adedeji’s remarks come at a time when Nigeria’s internally generated revenue (IGR) landscape reveals widening disparities between high-performing and low-performing states. According to Nairametrics analysis of 2024 IGR data, the 36 states and the FCT collectively generated N3.63 trillion in 2024—an impressive increase from N2.43 trillion recorded in 2023, representing 49.69% growth.

However, despite this improvement, the bottom 10 states accounted for only 5.23% of total IGR, highlighting deep structural weaknesses and overreliance on federal allocations among many subnational governments. Lagos, Rivers, and the FCT continue to dominate revenue generation, while several states struggle to build resilient domestic revenue systems.

A Call to Action

In his concluding remarks, Adedeji stressed that Nigeria’s path to sustainable development rests on evidence-based planning, disciplined budgeting, improved tax administration, and strategic infrastructure investment. By selecting projects based on their economic impact and further strengthening institutions, Nigeria can unlock new sources of growth and build a more stable, resilient revenue foundation for the future.

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, has welcomed the recent decision by S&P Global Ratings to revise Nigeria’s economic outlook from Stable to Positive, describing it as a strong and encouraging validation of the reforms currently being implemented by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

In a statement released on Saturday, Edun noted that S&P’s upgrade—while maintaining Nigeria’s long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings at B-/B—demonstrates growing international confidence in the direction of Nigeria’s fiscal, monetary, and structural reforms. According to him, the acknowledgment reinforces the government’s resolve to continue pursuing policies designed to restore macroeconomic stability and lay the foundation for long-term, inclusive growth.

“I am delighted to receive the news that S&P Global Ratings has revised Nigeria’s outlook to Positive from Stable while affirming our ‘B-/B’ rating,” Edun said. “This development is yet another clear signal that the difficult but necessary reforms we are undertaking are gaining traction and earning strong recognition from respected global institutions.”

All Major Rating Agencies Now Align

Edun highlighted that S&P’s revised outlook follows earlier upgrades and positive signals from Moody’s and Fitch Ratings earlier in the year. With all three major global credit rating agencies now aligned in their assessment of Nigeria’s reform progress, he said this convergence reflects a strengthening level of confidence in the country’s economic direction.

“This alignment reflects tremendous confidence in the trajectory of our fiscal, monetary, and structural reforms, and in the renewed strength and stability of our economy,” he explained.

Reform Efforts Already Showing Results

The Minister noted that S&P’s decision was driven by Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic indicators—especially stronger growth prospects, rising external buffers, and clearer, more credible monetary policy outcomes. These improvements, he said, indicate that the government’s policy choices are beginning to yield measurable benefits.

“These positive signals reinforce our commitment to staying the course,” Edun stated. “We recognise that more work lies ahead, but we are confident that the foundations being built today will support sustainable and inclusive growth for years to come.”

He praised President Tinubu for what he termed “unwavering leadership and political courage” in driving reforms that previous administrations had avoided. Edun also acknowledged the resilience of Nigerians who are navigating the ongoing economic transition, assuring them that the reforms are designed to create a stronger, more dynamic economy.

“We will continue to implement well-coordinated policies that restore macroeconomic stability, attract investment, and create opportunities for our citizens. The confidence shown by global ratings agencies strengthens our resolve to deliver a prosperous Nigerian economy,” he added.

What S&P Noted in Its Report

In its statement on Friday, S&P Global Ratings revised Nigeria’s outlook to Positive, citing ongoing reform efforts and improving macroeconomic performance. The rating agency also reaffirmed Nigeria’s national scale ratings at ngBBB+/ngA-2.

According to S&P, the positive outlook reflects improving fiscal, monetary, external, and economic outcomes—though the agency also pointed out persistent challenges such as low GDP per capita, high debt-servicing costs, and structural data limitations.

The upgrade follows several major reforms implemented since mid-2023, including:

• Exchange-rate liberalisation

• Removal of the fuel subsidy

• Aggressive revenue-mobilisation measures

• Rising crude oil production

• Stabilisation efforts in the oil and gas sector

• Commissioning of the Dangote Refinery, poised to reshape Nigeria’s energy supply

S&P stated that these coordinated policy moves are placing Nigeria on a more resilient economic path, adding: “We think authorities are taking steps to improve the economy’s growth prospects and macroeconomic resilience.”

What You Should Know

S&P has also raised its average growth projection for Nigeria to 3.7% between 2025 and 2028, up from its previous estimate of 3.2%, supported by increased oil production and stronger private sector confidence.

Other key projections include:

• Inflation is expected to gradually ease to 13% by 2028.

• Nigeria’s external position has improved, with gross foreign reserves estimated at just under $44 billion as of October 2025.

• Removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list and a more stable exchange-rate environment have boosted both diaspora remittances and foreign portfolio inflows.

Overall, the latest S&P rating marks another significant milestone in Nigeria’s reform journey and signals growing international recognition of the country’s economic recovery efforts under the Tinubu administration.

The Nigerian Naira wrapped up the week on a subdued trajectory in the official foreign exchange market, closing at N1,444 per US dollar on Friday. This performance, captured in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) daily FX data, underscores the continued strain on the local currency despite incremental improvements in the nation’s external reserves.

Throughout the week, the Naira displayed a pattern of mild volatility, mirroring the uneven supply conditions and lingering demand pressures that have characterized Nigeria’s foreign exchange environment for several months. These movements highlight ongoing market fragility even as macro indicators such as reserves show signs of strengthening.

Daily Performance and Midweek Weakness

The currency opened the week at N1,437.50/$1 on Monday, setting a relatively firm tone. However, this stability quickly gave way as demand-side pressure intensified. By Tuesday, the Naira slid to N1,440.89/$1, followed by a steeper decline on Wednesday when the currency touched N1,444.85/$1, its weakest level of the week.

Thursday brought a modest reprieve, with the Naira recovering slightly to N1,441/$1, but the momentum proved short-lived. The currency weakened once again on Friday, closing at N1,444/$1, effectively ending the week near its Wednesday low.

Compared to the previous week’s closing rate of N1,438.50/$1, the Naira recorded a mild but noticeable week-on-week depreciation, reflecting the persistent structural challenges of FX supply shortages, speculative positioning, and inconsistent inflows.

Volatility Heightens Despite Rising Foreign Reserves

One of the more notable dynamics this week is the divergence between FX rate movements and the steady rise in Nigeria’s external reserves. According to CBN data, foreign reserves increased to $43.5 billion, up from $43.32 billion the week before. Analysts attribute this improvement to enhanced crude oil receipts, better non-oil inflows, and stricter FX management strategies implemented by the apex bank.

Ordinarily, an uptick in reserves signals stronger capacity for market intervention and typically boosts investor confidence. However, the Naira’s continued weakness suggests that demand pressures currently outweigh the cushioning effect of higher reserves. Market analysts point out that without a meaningful boost in autonomous FX supply—particularly from exports and foreign investments—reserves alone may not be sufficient to stabilize the currency.

Broader Market Dynamics and Black Market Pressure

The Naira also faced downward pressure in the parallel (black) market, where it traded between N1,455/$1 and N1,463/$1 during the week. The widening gap between the official and parallel market rates highlights ongoing liquidity constraints and persistent retail-level demand for dollars.

Currency traders in the informal market report that access to FX remains extremely tight. Many Bureau De Change (BDC) operators have warned that they are “on the brink of shutting down” due to the prolonged suspension of dollar sales to BDCs by the CBN. Without allocations from the official window, operators rely heavily on sparse street-level supply, driving up rates and limiting their ability to remain profitable.

Outlook: Stability Still Hinges on Supply-Side Reforms

Analysts note that the CBN’s managed float framework, supported by improving reserve levels, has prevented more volatile swings compared to earlier months when the Naira saw rapid intraday fluctuations. However, the slight depreciation observed this week points to a cautious overall market outlook, especially as global oil prices soften and economic headwinds persist.

For the Naira to find firmer footing in the coming weeks, stakeholders emphasize the need for stronger export performance, more consistent FX inflows, improved investor confidence, and steady monetary policy execution.

Until these underlying issues are addressed, the Naira is likely to continue navigating a challenging FX landscape marked by intermittent gains, persistent pressures, and sensitivity to global market shifts.