January 2026 – Page 13

Improved broker performance drives surge in Nigerian equities trading in 2025

Activity on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) accelerated sharply in 2025, with improved performance by leading stockbrokers contributing to a significant rise in market turnover. Data from the exchange show that the 10 most active stockbrokers executed trades valued at N7.3 trillion during the year, representing 61.82 percent of the total value of equities traded across the market.

This performance reflects a substantial increase from 2024, when the same group of brokers facilitated transactions worth approximately N3.1 trillion. The year-on-year growth of over 135 percent underscores a renewed wave of investor participation and stronger trading momentum in Nigeria’s equities market.

Across the entire broker community, total trade value climbed to N11.94 trillion in 2025, more than double the N5.7 trillion recorded in the previous year. The surge highlights a broader recovery in market confidence, supported by improved liquidity, stronger corporate earnings in select sectors, and heightened participation by institutional and high-net-worth investors.

Trade volumes also record strong growth

The rise in transaction value was matched by a sharp increase in trade volumes. Total shares traded across the NGX rose from 278.3 billion units in 2024 to 452.5 billion shares in 2025. The top 10 brokers accounted for nearly half of this activity, contributing 49.41 percent of total traded volume.

Market analysts note that while increased trading frequency played a role, larger transaction sizes were a key driver of the jump in trade value. This trend reflects growing interest in blue-chip stocks and large-cap transactions, particularly within the banking, telecommunications, and energy sectors.

For this performance review, trade value was used as the primary metric, as it captures both transaction size and economic significance, offering a clearer picture of each broker’s impact on the market.

Notable shifts in broker rankings

The composition of the top-performing brokers in 2025 saw some notable changes. Chapel Hill Denham Securities and Absa Securities Nigeria entered the top 10 ranking during the year, executing trades valued at N1.01 trillion and N426 billion respectively. Both firms were absent from the top tier in 2024, highlighting the increasingly competitive nature of Nigeria’s brokerage landscape.

Meanwhile, United Capital, which facilitated N316.1 billion in trades in 2025—down about 7 percent from N341 billion in the previous year—did not feature among the most improved brokers due to its year-on-year decline.

Stanbic IBTC records modest improvement

Stanbic IBTC Stockbrokers Limited ranked seventh among the most improved brokers in 2025, recording a 14.42 percent increase in trade value compared to 2024. The firm facilitated N735.5 billion in transactions during the year, up from N642.8 billion recorded previously.

Despite the growth in absolute terms, Stanbic IBTC’s market share by value declined. The broker accounted for 6.16 percent of the total N11.94 trillion market value of trades executed by all Nigerian stockbrokers in 2025, down from 11.26 percent in the previous year. This decline reflects the faster growth recorded by competing firms rather than a contraction in Stanbic’s trading activity.

Within the group of top 10 brokers, Stanbic IBTC contributed 9.96 percent of the N7.3 trillion in executed trades, compared to a significantly higher 20.49 percent share in 2024. The shift illustrates how increased participation by other brokers reshaped market dynamics during the year.

In terms of volume, Stanbic IBTC ranked seventh in 2025, facilitating trades involving 14.3 billion shares. This marked a slight decrease from the 14.9 billion shares traded in 2024, when the broker ranked second by volume. Analysts attribute the change to a strategic focus on higher-value trades rather than large volumes of smaller transactions.

Broader market implications

The strong performance of Nigeria’s leading stockbrokers in 2025 points to a more active and competitive equities market. Rising trade values and volumes suggest improved investor sentiment, supported by macroeconomic adjustments, relative FX market stability, and growing interest in listed equities as an inflation hedge.

As competition intensifies, market participants expect continued innovation in brokerage services, including enhanced digital platforms, deeper institutional engagement, and improved research-driven trading strategies. These developments are likely to play a critical role in shaping market activity in the years ahead.

Overall, the performance of Nigeria’s most improved stockbrokers in 2025 reflects a market that is regaining depth and momentum, setting a stronger foundation for future growth in the capital market.

Naira expected to remain under pressure in 2026 amid economic uncertainties — Yemi Kale

Nigeria’s currency, the naira, is projected to remain under sustained pressure throughout 2026, as structural weaknesses in the economy continue to weigh on foreign exchange stability. This outlook was highlighted by economist Dr. Yemi Kale during his presentation at the FirstBank Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 forum, where he outlined multiple scenarios for the performance of the naira in the coming year.

According to Kale, the most likely outcome for the naira is a moderate but persistent depreciation, driven by ongoing challenges such as inflationary pressures, limited foreign exchange inflows, high import dependence, and lingering confidence issues in the FX market. While policy reforms have improved transparency and reduced some distortions, he noted that these measures may not be sufficient to deliver strong currency appreciation in the near term.

Under the baseline scenario, the naira is expected to trade within the range of ₦1,350 to ₦1,450 per U.S. dollar by the end of 2026. This projection assumes gradual improvements in external reserves, relative stability in oil production and export earnings, continued central bank intervention to smooth volatility, and the absence of major external shocks. By mid-year, the currency could trade around ₦1,310 to the dollar before weakening slightly toward year-end.

Despite this outlook, Kale cautioned that risks to the currency remain elevated. Structural issues such as persistent inflation, weak productivity growth, and FX mismatches across sectors could continue to exert downward pressure on the naira, making sustained stability difficult without deeper reforms.

Alternative scenarios for the currency

In a more optimistic scenario, the naira could strengthen to levels between ₦1,200 and ₦1,300 per dollar by the end of 2026. This outcome would depend on stronger global oil prices, improved domestic oil output, increased non-oil export earnings, rising remittance inflows, and effective implementation of foreign exchange reforms. A reduction in inflation and a narrowing gap between official and parallel market rates would also support currency stability under this scenario.

However, even in this more favourable case, the naira would still remain significantly weaker than historical levels, reflecting long-standing structural imbalances in Nigeria’s economy. Kale stressed that currency stability should be viewed as a gradual process rather than a rapid turnaround.

On the downside, a more adverse scenario could see the naira weaken beyond ₦1,550 to ₦1,650 per dollar by the end of 2026. This outcome could be triggered by a sharp decline in oil prices, disruptions to crude oil production, worsening fiscal pressures, rising inflation, or a renewed loss of investor confidence. In such a scenario, limited FX liquidity and widening budget deficits could intensify depreciation pressures.

Reserves, fiscal conditions, and structural reforms

The outlook also pointed to a gradual rebuilding of Nigeria’s external reserves over the medium term, supported by improved oil receipts, remittance inflows, and potential portfolio investment returns. However, Kale emphasised that reserve accumulation alone would not be sufficient to stabilise the naira without consistent policy implementation and fiscal discipline.

Efforts to reduce dependence on imported fuel through local refining were identified as a key opportunity to conserve foreign exchange. In addition, expanding exports in agriculture, manufacturing, and services could help broaden Nigeria’s FX base and reduce vulnerability to oil price shocks.

On the fiscal side, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to remain relatively stable over the medium term. However, high debt servicing costs continue to pose a challenge, with interest payments consuming a significant share of government revenue. This fiscal pressure limits the government’s ability to support the economy during periods of external stress, indirectly affecting currency stability.

Broader economic implications

The cautious outlook for the naira reflects broader macroeconomic realities facing Nigeria. While economic growth is expected to improve moderately and inflation is projected to ease gradually, uncertainties around global financial conditions, commodity prices, and domestic reforms remain key risk factors.

Kale noted that restoring confidence in the naira will require sustained efforts across monetary, fiscal, and structural policy areas. Transparent FX management, credible fiscal planning, and reforms that boost productivity and exports will be critical to improving long-term currency resilience.

As Nigeria enters 2026, the naira’s performance will likely continue to reflect the balance between reform progress and structural constraints, with moderate depreciation remaining the most probable outcome in the absence of significant external or policy-driven improvements.

Persistent non-payment by Ajaokuta Steel deepens concerns over electricity market liquidity

Nigeria’s electricity market continues to grapple with structural payment challenges, as fresh data highlights ongoing remittance failures by a key special customer category. According to a recent report by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), Ajaokuta Steel Company Limited and its host community did not make any payments toward electricity invoices issued in the third quarter of 2025, further compounding liquidity pressures within the power sector.

The regulator disclosed that the unpaid obligations amounted to N1.03 billion owed to the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading (NBET) Plc, alongside an additional N0.10 billion due to the Market Operator. The non-payment persists despite repeated invoicing, reinforcing concerns about the sustainability of settlement arrangements involving certain government-linked and special-status customers.

In its commentary, NERC described the situation as part of a long-standing pattern of default. The Commission noted that it has formally communicated the need for intervention to the appropriate Federal Government authorities, underscoring the limitations of regulatory enforcement in resolving payment failures tied to public-sector entities.

The continued non-remittance by Ajaokuta Steel stands in contrast to expectations that reforms in Nigeria’s electricity market would gradually improve payment discipline, particularly among large-volume consumers. Instead, the latest figures suggest that some legacy issues remain unresolved, placing additional strain on an already fragile market structure.

Why remittance performance matters

Payment compliance remains a central challenge in Nigeria’s Electricity Supply Industry (NESI), with far-reaching implications for the entire power value chain. Poor collections reduce available liquidity, limit the ability of power generation companies (GenCos) to recover costs, and ultimately constrain electricity supply. When GenCos are unable to meet financial obligations—such as gas payments and maintenance costs—the result is often reduced generation capacity and increased risk of system instability.

The impact extends beyond generators. NBET, which serves as the central off-taker of electricity from GenCos, relies on remittances from distribution companies and bilateral customers to meet its settlement obligations. Persistent shortfalls weaken NBET’s balance sheet and necessitate periodic government intervention to prevent systemic collapse.

The sharp disparity between the payment performance of domestic bilateral customers and international counterparties has also drawn attention to settlement risks within the market. While some international transactions have shown relatively stronger compliance, recurring domestic defaults highlight structural weaknesses that regulatory measures alone may not be able to resolve.

Understanding bilateral power arrangements

Bilateral customers purchase electricity directly from GenCos, operating outside the central trading pool managed by NBET. These arrangements are intended to promote market efficiency by allowing direct contracting between producers and large consumers. However, the effectiveness of bilateral trading depends heavily on strict payment discipline and enforceable contracts.

In practice, weak enforcement mechanisms and the involvement of politically sensitive entities have undermined the effectiveness of this model. NERC has repeatedly flagged poor remittance performance by certain bilateral customers as a recurring issue, contributing to widespread liquidity constraints across the sector.

Nairametrics has previously reported on NBET’s recurring payment shortfalls, revenue challenges faced by GenCos, and the regulatory steps taken to stabilise the market. Despite these efforts, the persistence of unpaid obligations by some customers suggests that deeper institutional and governance reforms may be required.

Government intervention and recent reforms

In recognition of the scale of payment arrears within the electricity sector, the Federal Government has taken steps to address historical debts. In December 2025, the government issued the first bond under the Presidential Power Sector Debt Reduction Programme, a landmark initiative aimed at clearing outstanding obligations owed to GenCos and gas suppliers.

The N590 billion Series 1 Power Sector Bond was issued through NBET Finance Company Plc, a special purpose vehicle established by the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc. The bond issuance marked a significant step toward restoring confidence in the sector and easing the financial pressure on market participants.

However, analysts caution that while debt restructuring initiatives provide temporary relief, they do not address the root causes of recurring non-payment. Without stronger enforcement, improved governance, and sustained political commitment, similar arrears could accumulate again over time.

As Nigeria continues efforts to reform its electricity market, the unresolved payment issues surrounding entities such as Ajaokuta Steel highlight the ongoing tension between policy ambition and operational realities. Addressing these challenges will be critical to improving sector liquidity, attracting investment, and ensuring reliable power supply for the broader economy.

CardinalStone forecasts average oil price of $55 per barrel in 2026 amid global supply pressures

Analysts at CardinalStone have projected that global crude oil prices will average about $55 per barrel in 2026, citing persistent oversupply and weakening global demand as major factors likely to weigh on the market. The outlook was outlined in the firm’s 2026 economic report titled “Indicators Align for Sustained Macro Gains,” released on January 6, 2026.

According to the report, while oil-producing countries such as Nigeria are expected to see improved production levels, broader global dynamics suggest that supply will continue to outpace demand, limiting any significant upward movement in prices. CardinalStone estimates that oil prices will average approximately $55.08 per barrel over the year, reflecting cautious sentiment across energy markets.

Nigeria’s production outlook improves

Despite the subdued global price environment, Nigeria’s crude oil production is expected to increase in 2026. CardinalStone projects that the country’s output will rise to about 1.75 million barrels per day (mb/d), up from an estimated 1.67 mb/d in 2025. The anticipated increase is attributed largely to a sustained reduction in crude oil losses, which have reportedly fallen to their lowest levels since 2009.

The report also points to increased investment activity among domestic energy companies as a positive driver of production growth. Indigenous producers such as SEPLAT and ARADEL are expected to raise capital expenditure, supported by the completion of the Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU) transaction and the acquisition of select Shell assets through the Renaissance Consortium. These developments are expected to strengthen Nigeria’s production capacity and improve operational efficiency within the sector.

However, CardinalStone cautioned that improved local output alone may not be sufficient to counteract the broader pressures affecting global oil prices.

Global oversupply remains a key challenge

At the global level, concerns about excess supply continue to dominate market expectations. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicate that oil supply is projected to exceed demand by about 3.84 million barrels per day in 2026. Although this represents a slight reduction from the 4.09 million bpd surplus projected in November, it still amounts to nearly four percent of total global demand.

Much of the surplus has been driven by output increases from members of the OPEC+ alliance. In 2025, countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman collectively added an estimated 2.9 million barrels per day to global supply. This expansion has contributed significantly to the imbalance between supply and demand.

In response, OPEC+ has opted to pause further output increases during the first quarter of 2026 in an effort to stabilise prices. However, market data suggest that the move has yet to produce a meaningful impact on price levels, with traders remaining cautious amid lingering concerns about demand growth.

Recent price performance and market sentiment

Brent Crude, the global oil benchmark, ended 2025 on a notably weak note. Prices declined by more than 18 percent over the year, falling from around $74 per barrel at the beginning of 2025 to approximately $60 per barrel by year-end.

Although there was a temporary recovery between May and July, when prices climbed above $71 per barrel, the rally proved short-lived. From August through December, bearish sentiment returned, driven largely by oversupply fears and uncertainty surrounding global economic growth. As of January 6, 2026, Brent Crude has been trading within a narrow range of about $60.9 to $61 per barrel, struggling to break above the $62 level in the near term.

Implications for Nigeria and global markets

The persistence of excess supply and subdued demand is expected to cap oil price gains in 2026, posing potential revenue challenges for major oil-producing countries, including Nigeria. While increased investment and asset acquisitions by firms such as SEPLAT and ARADEL could help sustain output and support investor confidence in the domestic sector, earnings may remain under pressure if prices fail to recover meaningfully.

Globally, market participants are expected to closely monitor developments that could signal a rebalancing of supply and demand, including changes in OPEC+ policy, geopolitical developments, and shifts in global consumption patterns. Any such changes could have significant implications for oil prices and investment strategies across the energy sector.

For now, CardinalStone’s outlook suggests a cautious year ahead for oil markets, with limited upside potential amid continued structural challenges.

Morgan Stanley moves to launch Bitcoin and Solana ETFs as Wall Street deepens crypto exposure

Morgan Stanley has filed applications with U.S. regulators seeking approval to introduce exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to Bitcoin and Solana, marking a significant step in the growing integration of digital assets into mainstream finance. If approved, the move would position the investment bank as the first major U.S. banking institution to directly issue ETFs tied to cryptocurrencies, underscoring a broader shift in how traditional financial firms engage with the sector.

According to filings submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and first reported by Reuters, the proposed ETFs would track the market prices of Bitcoin and Solana, two of the most prominent digital assets globally. The initiative signals Morgan Stanley’s intention to expand beyond advisory and custodial roles into the direct issuance of crypto-linked investment products.

The development comes amid a changing regulatory climate in the United States, where clearer policy direction has encouraged established financial institutions to revisit opportunities in digital assets. Under President Donald Trump’s administration, regulatory agencies have taken steps that appear more accommodating toward cryptocurrencies, helping to reduce uncertainty that previously kept large banks on the sidelines.

In December, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) issued guidance allowing banks to serve as intermediaries in cryptocurrency transactions. That decision narrowed the long-standing divide between traditional finance and the digital asset ecosystem, enabling banks to play a more active role in crypto-related services.

Details from the regulatory filings

The proposed ETFs are designed to provide investors with exposure to cryptocurrencies without requiring them to directly own or manage digital tokens. Instead, investors would gain access through regulated financial instruments traded on traditional exchanges, a structure that analysts say appeals to both institutional and retail investors seeking greater transparency and risk mitigation.

Bryan Armour, an ETF analyst at Morningstar, noted that Morgan Stanley’s entry into crypto ETFs reflects strategic positioning rather than experimentation. He suggested the bank may aim to transition existing clients who already hold Bitcoin exposure into its own ETF products, allowing it to gain traction quickly despite entering a market that has been dominated by asset managers.

Armour added that the participation of a globally recognised bank could further legitimise cryptocurrencies as an asset class and prompt additional banks to follow suit. Since the SEC approved the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. two years ago, non-bank asset managers have largely controlled the space. However, recent developments suggest that large banks are now prepared to compete more directly.

Morgan Stanley has already taken steps to widen access to crypto investments. In October, the bank expanded crypto availability across all client types and account categories. Bank of America followed a similar path in January, allowing its wealth advisers to recommend crypto allocations without minimum asset thresholds, highlighting a growing acceptance of digital assets among traditional wealth management firms.

Broader implications for emerging markets

While the proposed ETFs are focused on the U.S. market, the development has implications for countries such as Nigeria, which remains one of the most active cryptocurrency markets globally. Nigeria’s strong crypto adoption has been driven by a young population, demand for cross-border payments, and persistent foreign exchange challenges.

However, Nigeria’s regulatory stance on digital assets has evolved over time. In 2021, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) prohibited banks from facilitating cryptocurrency transactions, pushing most activity onto peer-to-peer platforms. That approach began to shift in late 2023, when the CBN introduced new guidelines allowing banks to open and operate accounts for Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs), subject to strict compliance measures.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Nigeria has also taken steps to formalise the sector, issuing rules covering digital asset issuance, exchange operations, and custody. In August 2024, the SEC granted approval-in-principle to Quidax and Busha, recognising them as legally compliant crypto exchanges in the country.

Despite these regulatory advancements, crypto-linked investment products such as ETFs are not yet available within Nigeria’s capital market. Regulators continue to emphasise investor protection, anti-money laundering controls, and systemic risk management as they assess the long-term role of digital assets in the financial system.

Morgan Stanley’s push into Bitcoin and Solana ETFs highlights how global financial institutions are increasingly positioning themselves for a future where cryptocurrencies play a more established role in investment portfolios, potentially reshaping both developed and emerging financial markets.

FirstBank Meets N500 Billion CBN Capital Requirement Ahead of March 2026 Deadline

First HoldCo Plc has announced that its flagship commercial banking subsidiary, First Bank of Nigeria Limited (FirstBank), has successfully met the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) minimum regulatory capital requirement of N500 billion, well ahead of the March 2026 recapitalisation deadline. The development underscores the lender’s financial strength and places it among the front-runners in the industry-wide push to comply with the apex bank’s new capital thresholds.

The disclosure was contained in a regulatory filing signed by the Group Company Secretary, Abiola Baruwa, and submitted to the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX). The announcement comes at a time when Nigerian commercial banks are accelerating capital-raising efforts in response to the CBN’s recapitalisation programme, which aims to strengthen the banking system and improve its ability to support economic growth.

How FirstBank met the requirement

According to the statement, FirstBank achieved the N500 billion minimum capital base through a combination of carefully structured market and balance-sheet initiatives. These included a Rights Issue offered to existing shareholders, a Private Placement targeted at strategic investors, and the injection of proceeds from the divestment of the Group’s merchant banking subsidiary.

First HoldCo explained that the blended approach allowed the Group to meet regulatory requirements without excessive strain on any single funding channel. By combining equity market transactions with asset optimisation, the holding company was able to shore up capital efficiently while maintaining balance-sheet flexibility.

“This milestone was achieved following the completion of a series of strategic capital initiatives,” the Group stated, adding that the process reflects disciplined capital planning and a proactive response to regulatory changes.

Stronger balance sheet, broader ambitions

Beyond regulatory compliance, First HoldCo said the successful recapitalisation significantly strengthens the Group’s financial resilience and positions it for sustained growth over the medium to long term. With a larger capital buffer, FirstBank is expected to expand its lending capacity, support larger-ticket transactions, and deepen its role in financing Nigeria’s real economy.

The Group noted that the enhanced capital base will support earnings growth through business expansion, increased investment in technology and digital banking, and the pursuit of new opportunities across its core African markets. In an increasingly competitive banking landscape, stronger capitalisation is also expected to improve FirstBank’s risk absorption capacity and resilience against macroeconomic shocks.

Analysts say early compliance gives FirstBank a strategic advantage, as banks that meet the requirement ahead of the deadline are better positioned to focus on growth initiatives rather than last-minute capital raises, which could dilute shareholders or raise funding costs.

Industry-wide recapitalisation drive

FirstBank’s achievement comes amid a broader industry push to meet the CBN’s revised capital requirements, which form a central pillar of the regulator’s financial system strengthening agenda. The recapitalisation programme is designed to ensure that Nigerian banks have the scale and balance-sheet strength needed to support economic expansion, manage rising risks, and compete effectively in a more integrated global financial system.

In November 2025, the CBN disclosed that 16 banks had already met the new capital thresholds, reflecting steady progress across the sector. The update was provided by CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso during a press briefing following the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja.

The figure marked an improvement from the 14 banks that had complied as of the September MPC meeting, signalling what the apex bank described as growing momentum and commitment within the industry.

What this means for the banking sector

FirstBank’s early compliance sends a positive signal to investors, depositors, and regulators about its financial health and governance. It also highlights the effectiveness of Nigeria’s capital markets in supporting large-scale fundraising efforts by systemically important financial institutions.

For the broader sector, the steady increase in the number of compliant banks suggests that the recapitalisation exercise is gaining traction, reducing the risk of disruption as the March 2026 deadline approaches. Banks that achieve compliance early are expected to gain competitive advantages, including stronger market confidence, improved credit ratings, and greater flexibility to pursue growth opportunities.

Overall, FirstBank’s successful recapitalisation reinforces its status as one of Nigeria’s most capitalised and resilient lenders, while also reflecting the banking industry’s collective progress toward meeting the CBN’s tighter regulatory standards and strengthening the foundations of the financial system.

ALEX Shares Surge 45.57% in First Trading Week of 2026 After Massive December Rally

Shares of Aluminium Extrusion Industries Plc (ALEX) kicked off 2026 on a strong footing, rising by 45.57% in the first trading week of the year to close at N23.80 on January 2. The sharp weekly gain extends an extraordinary rally recorded in December 2025, when the stock soared by an eye-catching 202.80%, making it one of the best-performing equities on the Nigerian Exchange in recent months.

The renewed investor interest marks a dramatic turnaround for a stock that had spent nearly two years trading sideways with minimal activity. From a starting price of N7.15 at the beginning of December 2025, ALEX surged to N21.65 by the end of the month, driven by a combination of rising volumes, improving sentiment, and renewed optimism around the company’s operational outlook.

December rally sets the tone

Market data shows that December 2025 was ALEX’s most active trading month in recent years. More than 43 million shares were exchanged during the month, reflecting a sharp rise in liquidity and participation from both retail and speculative investors. This spike in trading activity coincided with a major corporate and policy development: the revival of operations at the company’s production plant in Imo State.

The rally gained significant momentum following a flag-off ceremony held on December 23, 2025, to mark the resumption of activities at the Aluminium Extrusion Industries facility. The event, backed by the Imo State Government, signaled renewed public-sector support for the company and appeared to restore market confidence in its long-term prospects.

Investors interpreted the reopening as a positive signal that the company could gradually return to full production, improve revenues, and regain relevance in Nigeria’s aluminium value chain. That optimism quickly translated into aggressive buying pressure, pushing the stock sharply higher before the year ended.

Strong momentum into 2026

The bullish momentum did not fade with the turn of the year. In the shortened trading week ending January 2, 2026, ALEX added another 45.57%, closing at N23.80. As of mid-session trading on January 5, the stock was quoted at N24.10, with monthly trading volume already crossing the 5-million-share mark—an early indication that investor interest remains strong.

For market watchers, the speed of the rebound is particularly striking. After nearly two years of price stagnation between December 2023 and December 2025, sentiment around ALEX shifted decisively within weeks, underscoring how quickly narratives can change on the Nigerian Exchange Limited when new catalysts emerge.

Why the rally matters

Beyond short-term price gains, the rebound in ALEX shares reflects broader expectations around industrial revival and sub-national economic development. The restart of production at the company’s plant positions Aluminium Extrusion Industries as a potential beneficiary of renewed emphasis on local manufacturing, import substitution, and job creation.

For Imo State, the reopening of the facility carries economic significance, with prospects of employment restoration, upstream supply chain activity, and increased internally generated revenue. For investors, the surge in trading volumes and price performance serves as a signal that the market is reassessing the company’s valuation and future earnings potential.

However, analysts caution that sustaining the rally will depend on consistent operational execution, transparent disclosures, and evidence that production restart translates into improved financial performance over time.

What you should know

Aluminium Extrusion Industries Plc was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in Owerri. The company manufactures aluminium extruded profiles, billets, and roofing sheets and currently operates as a subsidiary of Tower Aluminium Nigeria Plc.

In November 2023, Tower Alloys Industries acquired a 67.55% controlling stake in ALEX, triggering a brief rally of about 10%. However, that initial excitement faded, and the stock remained largely inactive for almost two years until the recent operational revival reignited interest.

At its current price of N24.10, ALEX has an estimated market capitalisation of about N5.30 billion, based on 219.96 million outstanding shares. The stock’s recent performance ranks among the strongest rallies on the NGX in recent months, placing it firmly on investor watchlists as the market assesses whether the bullish momentum can be sustained into the rest of 2026.

Dangote Refinery Refutes Shutdown Reports, Says Daily Supply of 50 Million Litres Remains Uninterrupted

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has firmly denied reports suggesting that it is shutting down operations for maintenance, describing such claims as false, misleading, and deliberately crafted to unsettle Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market. In a statement issued on Monday, the refinery reaffirmed that it continues to operate at scale, supplying more than 50 million litres of petrol daily to meet domestic demand.

The management of the 650,000 barrels-per-day Lagos-based facility said production remains stable and uninterrupted, stressing that the refinery is fully functional and continues to play a critical role in stabilising fuel supply and prices across the country. According to the company, the rumours of a shutdown are unfounded and do not reflect the realities of its current operations.

Production steady despite maintenance activities

The refinery explained that it has consistently maintained daily petrol production levels ranging between 40 million and 50 million litres, depending solely on prevailing market demand. As evidence of ongoing operations, the company disclosed that on January 4, it produced 50 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and evacuated 48 million litres through its gantry on the same day. In addition, marketers reportedly lifted over 48 million litres in a single day last Sunday, underscoring steady offtake from the facility.

Dangote Refinery further revealed that its current stock levels are sufficient to cover more than 20 days of national petrol consumption, effectively dispelling fears of an imminent supply shortage. It also reaffirmed its ex-gantry price of N699 per litre, noting that the price remains accessible to all marketers and bulk buyers without discrimination.

In its words, “Dangote Petroleum Refinery continues to operate at scale and retains the capacity to supply between 40 million and 50 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily through January and February, subject solely to market demand.”

Maintenance without disruption

Addressing the source of the shutdown speculation, the refinery clarified that routine maintenance was being carried out on select units, including the Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) and the Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) unit. However, it stressed that these activities have not disrupted overall production, owing to the integrated and redundant design of the facility.

According to the statement, other critical processing units—such as the Naphtha Hydrotreater, Continuous Catalytic Regeneration (CCR) Reformer, and the Hydrocracker—remain fully operational. These units continue to produce not only PMS but also Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) and Jet A-1 fuel, ensuring a steady supply of refined products to the domestic market.

To further reassure stakeholders, the refinery disclosed that between December 16, 2025, and the present date, it has consistently loaded between 31 million and 48 million litres of PMS daily, in line with actual market demand. These figures, it noted, are independently verifiable through depot loading records maintained by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) as part of its regulatory oversight.

Stabilising fuel prices in a post-subsidy era

Dangote Refinery also highlighted the broader implications of its operations for Nigeria’s fuel market. According to the company, without domestic refining capacity, petrol prices in a post-subsidy environment could climb as high as N1,400 per litre, driven by import costs, foreign exchange pressures, and global price volatility.

“The refinery’s operations have therefore served as a critical stabilising force in the downstream petroleum market,” the statement said, adding that sustained local production has helped moderate pump prices and reduce Nigeria’s exposure to external supply shocks.

What you should know

In December, the refinery reiterated its readiness to take full responsibility for meeting Nigeria’s domestic petrol needs. It pledged to deliver up to 1.5 billion litres of PMS monthly—equivalent to about 50 million litres per day—with plans to ramp up supply to 1.7 billion litres per month, or roughly 57 million litres daily, from February 2026.

Market analysts note that the recent decline in petrol prices across several parts of the country has been largely attributed to increased domestic refining output from Dangote Refinery. As Nigeria continues to transition away from fuel imports, the refinery’s sustained operations are expected to remain central to energy security, price stability, and foreign exchange savings in the months ahead

Nigeria’s Business Activity Expands for 12th Straight Month as Rising Costs Temper Confidence — NESG–Stanbic IBTC Report

Nigeria’s business activity sustained its expansion streak for the twelfth consecutive month in December 2025, underscoring the economy’s resilience despite mounting cost pressures and weakening consumer demand. This assessment is contained in the latest NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM), jointly produced by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) and Stanbic IBTC Bank, and titled “Rising Uncertainty Dampens Nigeria’s Current Business Conditions.”

While the headline indicators remained firmly in expansionary territory, the report paints a picture of an economy that is growing more cautiously. Structural bottlenecks, elevated operating costs, and softer demand conditions are increasingly shaping business sentiment, suggesting that momentum, though intact, is moderating.

Growth moderates but remains resilient

According to the report, the Current Business Performance Index eased slightly to 112.0 points in December 2025, down from 113.3 points recorded in November. Despite this marginal slowdown, the index remained well above the 100-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction and stood 11.2 points higher than its level in December 2024. This indicates that business conditions are still significantly stronger than a year earlier.

The BCM noted that the moderation reflects a more cautious stance among businesses, driven largely by subdued consumer purchasing power and persistent cost pressures. Nevertheless, all five major sectors tracked—Agriculture, Manufacturing, Trade, Non-Manufacturing, and Services—remained in expansion during the month, even though three sectors recorded slower growth compared with November.

Sectoral performance highlights

Agriculture emerged as the strongest-performing sector in December, with its BCM index rising by 9.6 points to 112.9. The improvement was attributed to heightened seasonal demand during the festive period, alongside stronger activity in Crop Production, Livestock, and Agro-Allied sub-sectors. Notably, Livestock and Agro-Allied activities exited contraction territory, posting indices of 105.2 and 108.2 points respectively.

Manufacturing also recorded modest improvement, with its index climbing to 117.9 points. Growth in this sector was supported by increased output in Food, Beverages and Tobacco; Textile and Apparel; Plastic and Rubber Products; as well as Electrical and Electronics manufacturing. However, the report highlighted ongoing structural challenges, as sub-sectors such as Cement, Basic Metal, Iron and Steel, and Wood Products slipped into contraction, weighed down by high production costs and supply constraints.

Trade, Non-Manufacturing, and Services all maintained expansion but lost momentum. The Trade index declined to 123.8 points from 132.9 points in November, as festive-season sales were dampened by weak consumer purchasing power. Services recorded its second consecutive slowdown, reflecting weaker activity in Real Estate, Broadcasting, Telecommunications, and Professional Services.

Rising costs and business caution

Across sectors, key sub-indices—including production levels, financial conditions, supply orders, access to credit, and cash flow—recorded moderate declines, signaling growing caution among firms. At the same time, the cost of doing business rose sharply, with the cost index increasing to 61.6 points from 54.3 in November. Surveyed firms cited unreliable electricity supply, insecurity, raw material shortages, rising input prices, and weakening sales as major constraints to operations.

These pressures continue to weigh on margins and investment decisions, limiting the pace at which businesses can scale operations despite overall economic expansion.

What it means for the economy

The December 2025 BCM data suggest that Nigeria’s economy remains on a growth path but is increasingly constrained by long-standing structural issues and near-term cost pressures. Although the Future Business Expectation Index dipped slightly to 132.6 points, it remained above its level from December 2024, indicating that businesses still expect gradual improvement in the months ahead.

However, the moderation in expectations reflects uncertainty around policy reforms, operating conditions, and broader macroeconomic risks. Sustaining momentum into 2026 will likely require targeted reforms to reduce operating costs, improve infrastructure, enhance security, and strengthen consumer purchasing power.

Supporting indicators remain positive

Complementing the BCM findings, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reported that Nigeria’s private sector expanded at its fastest pace of 2025 in December, with the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 57.6 points. In addition, Stanbic IBTC’s November 2025 PMI report noted that input cost inflation eased to its weakest level in nearly five years, offering some relief to businesses.

Overall, the data portray an economy that is expanding steadily but cautiously—resilient in the face of challenges, yet in need of deeper structural improvements to unlock stronger, more inclusive growth in the year ahead.

Dollar Inflows into Nigeria’s FX Market Slide 21% as Foreign Investors Retreat Despite CBN Support for the Naira

U.S. dollar inflows into Nigeria’s official foreign exchange market declined sharply in the opening week of the year, underscoring persistent fragility in foreign investor confidence despite sustained reforms and interventions by the monetary authorities. Data from the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) show that total dollar inflows fell by 20.67% week on week to US$593.70 million, compared with US$748.40 million recorded in the previous week.

According to a research note published by Coronation Merchant Bank, the sharp contraction was driven primarily by a steep deterioration in offshore participation, as both portfolio and direct investments into the country weakened significantly. The decline highlights the ongoing caution among global investors toward Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment, even after notable foreign exchange reforms implemented in 2024 and 2025.

Foreign inflows collapse as caution persists

The report revealed that foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows plunged by 72.91% to just US$46 million, down from US$169.8 million a week earlier. Foreign direct investment (FDI) also recorded a dramatic fall, dropping 81.87% to US$7.0 million from US$38.6 million in the prior week. As a result, foreign sources accounted for only 17.05% of total FX inflows during the period.

Analysts say this collapse in offshore inflows reinforces concerns that international investors remain unconvinced about Nigeria’s near-term risk outlook. While the liberalisation of the FX market and the move toward a more market-reflective exchange rate were widely welcomed, investors continue to weigh issues such as inflationary pressures, policy consistency, and broader macroeconomic stability.

Domestic sources shoulder FX liquidity

With foreign participation fading, domestic sources once again became the backbone of FX supply, contributing 82.95% of total inflows into the official market. Individuals led domestic inflows with US$165.1 million, followed closely by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which supplied US$128.0 million. Exporters and importers added another US$115.6 million.

Market analysts note that while the strong contribution from local sources has helped prevent severe dislocations in the FX market, it also highlights Nigeria’s continued dependence on central bank intervention and domestic FX recycling. This structure, they argue, is less sustainable than a model anchored on consistent autonomous foreign inflows from trade, investment, and remittances.

Mixed performance for the naira

The naira’s performance mirrored these underlying tensions. At the official window, the currency appreciated by 0.88% week on week to close at N1,430.85/US$, supported largely by ongoing dollar sales from the CBN. However, conditions in the parallel market told a different story, with the naira weakening to around N1,490/US$, reflecting lingering unmet demand outside the formal FX system.

Coronation Research observed that while intervention has succeeded in dampening volatility at the official market, structural pressures persist. Recovering import demand, coupled with subdued foreign investment inflows, continues to strain overall FX balance.

Reserves edge higher amid heavy intervention

Nigeria’s gross external reserves rose marginally by 0.58% to US$45.50 billion, increasing by about US$264.56 million at the start of the year. This modest gain came despite significant FX market intervention. The Coronation report estimates that the CBN spent approximately US$4.1 billion in the first half of last year defending the naira and supporting market liquidity.

The adoption of technology-driven platforms such as the Bloomberg FX Matching System and the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System has improved transparency, price discovery, and interbank confidence. These measures have also helped narrow the gap between official and parallel market rates, though analysts caution that such gains remain fragile without a rebound in foreign inflows.

Outlook: confidence is the missing link

In the near term, the naira is expected to trade within a relatively narrow band at the official window, supported by continued CBN intervention and easing seasonal FX demand following year-end pressures. Looking further into 2026, Coronation projects an exchange rate range of N1,400–N1,500/US$, underpinned by higher oil production, reduced fuel import dependence, and improved export-driven FX earnings.

However, analysts stress that lasting exchange-rate stability will ultimately depend on policy consistency, fiscal discipline, and renewed investor confidence. Without a sustained recovery in foreign portfolio and direct investments, Nigeria’s FX market is likely to remain heavily reliant on domestic liquidity and central bank support, leaving the naira vulnerable to future shocks.

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Month: January 2026

How FirstBank met the requirement

Stronger balance sheet, broader ambitions

Industry-wide recapitalisation drive

What this means for the banking sector

December rally sets the tone

Strong momentum into 2026

Why the rally matters

What you should know

Production steady despite maintenance activities

Maintenance without disruption

Stabilising fuel prices in a post-subsidy era

What you should know

Growth moderates but remains resilient

Sectoral performance highlights

Rising costs and business caution

What it means for the economy

Supporting indicators remain positive

Foreign inflows collapse as caution persists

Domestic sources shoulder FX liquidity

Mixed performance for the naira

Reserves edge higher amid heavy intervention

Outlook: confidence is the missing link